Day Trading Economic News Analysis: March 26, 2010
S&P 500 Pivot Points
The S&P 500 ended Thursday trading at the 1165 level, which is just below Tuesday's support level. For much of the session the S&P 500 traded above Wednesday's previous high before falling below mid-afternoon. Friday's primary pivot point is 1170.50 so expect the market to trend lower if the S&P 500 trades below this area.
If the market breaks below Tuesday's previous low of 1163 then expect the overall market to trend lower. The S&P 500 has a nice run on the daily chart since February and it maybe time for a slight correction.
Gold and Crude Oil Analysis
Gold gain $3 yesterday however it is still below the losses suffered on Wednesday of falling $15 or 1.4%. Crude oil gained 0.47 cents finishing at $81 a barrel. Last week OPEC cartel announced that it will keep oil output ceiling unchanged as it will keep its profit from the falling dollar.
Expect gold to fall further as it stays below $1100 as the strength of the dollar gains against the euro. Oil is currently trading between the $80 and $81 range compared to last week's $82 indicating the price of oil has not fluctuated greatly reinforcing OPEC's decision of keeping oil output the same.
Forex Analysis: Dollar vs. Euro
The euro dropped against the dollar following a statement from the European Central Bank President that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to help Greece's debt would be negative. On Wednesday Fitch downgraded Portugal's credit rating. Expect the euro to fall further as more European countries reveal their credit worthiness.
Economic Numbers
Yesterday showed positive signs in the labor market as jobless claims fell 442k for the week. Ben Bernanke testified in front of the House Committee on Financial Services to discuss the Fed's exit strategy from its emergency lending facilities. Bernanke stated that low interest rates are still needed to support the US economy however the central bank has to tighten credit to prevent inflation.
Today GDP and consumer sentiment numbers may stir the markets.
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We mentioned yesterday that there will be resistance around Tuesday's previous high of 1192. The S&P 500 only reached a high of 1190 before being consumed with the consumer credit report declining $11.5 billion in February. The S&P 500 settled at 1182 level after it fell to a low of 1177 breaking last Thursday's previous high of 1181.
On Friday Goldman Sachs was charged by the SEC with civil fraud regarding dealings of the subprime related products. Expect European and Asia markets to be lower on Monday after the aftermath of selling on the US exchanges. The S&P 500 fell to 1192 ending the day near last Wednesday's previous low.
The S&P started falling to a low of 1189 before ending the day up 1 to the 1197 level. On Monday the S&P 500 reached a new 52 week high of 1199 as the afternoon kicked off earnings season with the announcement of Alcoa. Alcoa ended up nearly flat on Tuesday's trading.
Today's primary pivot is 1173.34 so expect the market to go higher if it trades above between 1172 and 1174 levels and find support between 1167 and 1168.
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