Parksville & Qualicum Beach Forecast for Housing in 2011
As a REALTOR®, I have been monitoring the market statistics and looking at the economic data for our local region. Thank heavens for Economics 101! Perhaps the most common question I've been asked over the Holidays has been "How will our local housing market fare in 2011?" People are wondering if we will see volatility or stability. Are we coming into a buyer's, seller's or balanced market?
In the reading and research I've done, there is a common belief that British Columbia will likely lead the country in home sales activity next year. The market will be characterized by plenty of inventory, steady demand and moderate growth in both unit sales and prices. Although the BC economy will probably only experience modest growth through 2011, the province is in a relatively strong position. Nearly all BC jobs lost during the recession have been recouped.
A gradual pace of growth will be a good thing for our province, keeping inflation and interest rates low. If borrowing costs were to escalate rapidly, there could be a sharp erosion in home affordability. Fortunately, a quick increase in interest rates is not expected to occur. The Bank of Canada appears to be staying the course in keeping interest rates low.
Because a very large portion of home sales in the Parksville and Qualicum Beach region are to retirees, our local market is much less susceptible than others to macro-economic conditions such as volatility in the resource sector. Overall, we should be seeing a very balanced market in 2011 with increased consumer confidence and historically low interest rates still available.
One key indicator of the health of our local housing market is sales of luxury homes. In 2009, only 9 single family homes over $1 million sold in the Parksville/Qualicum region. In 2010, up to the end of November, that number had more than doubled with 20 single family homes over the $1 million mark sold in this area! That certainly demonstrates significant confidence in the Oceanside real estate market!
Dramatically increased activity in lot sales in the Parksville and Qualicum Beach region also bodes well for the market in 2011. 37 lots were sold in Oceanside in 2009. In 2010, up to the end of November, that number is more than twice as high with 84 lots sold! I consider this to be an important indication of speculative buying, especially by builders – definitely a strong sign of market confidence!
As for the key price point range from $300 to $500 thousand, unit sales of single family homes in the Parksville and Qualicum Beach region were almost identical from 2009 to 2010. I expect we'll see a modest increase in number of homes sold for this type of property in 2011.
Are you interested in having access to Parksville and Qualicum Beach market information? Every month, I post the latest stats on my website at www.lacouveehomes.com. These detailed reports include important figures such as sales price and days to sell averages. You'll also find the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board HOME SALES Map with data for other nearby communities including Nanaimo, Port Alberni / West Coast, Campbell River and the Comox Valley. I welcome you to visit my website soon to easily find this useful information.
Please remember to talk with a local REALTOR® to examine how the market affects your particular circumstances. Jim Stewart, the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board's President-Elect says that, "Although there are signs of stability in the market, it is critically important to consult with a REALTOR® to be properly informed on how it might affect an individual situation."
Sources: Vancouver Island Real Estate Board, BCREA Forecast
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