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Bill Byrnes - Articles2008 Economic and Investment OutlookThe decline in the value of existing homes is what will cause the 2008 recession and cause it to be the most severe recession since the early 1980s (although not all that bad by historical standards). The bulk of the average American's savings is in their home and their net worth is decreasing. Surviving A RecessionInvestors face two challenges right now. If the economy is headed into a recession, where do I put my money? And, if the economy avoids a recession will I be in the right investments? The stock market anticipates the future. It will decline prior to the US entering a recession and it will start going up prior to the end of the recession. A Euro, A Yen, A Buck Or A Pound-Currency Fluctuation ExplainedGlobal diversification is an essential part of your investment strategy. Like every other investment, you need to do your homework and understand how much, and what, risk you're taking. Danger: Recession Ahead Proceed with CautionHousing, and related, jobs account for 10% of our total employment. Single family housing starts fell 7.3% in October and permits dropped 6.6%, to the lowest levels in 15 years. (You can see the ripple effect on the earnings of Home Depot and Lowes.) Making Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) Work for YouExchange traded funds are index funds which have advantages over open-end index mutual funds. ETFs trade all day long on the stock exchanges, may be purchased through any broker, have lower fund expenses than mutual funds, and have less likelihood of generating unwanted taxable gains than mutual funds. The ABCs of Exchange Traded FundsEvery investor should consider Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). The younger brother of open-end index mutual funds is growing up fast and showing greater versatility. Investing In Energy FundsChina, India and the other new economies also consume more energy each year. Political instability in Nigeria, Iran, and Venezuela could limit supply. And, there's only so much oil (natural gas and coal) in the ground. I'm not suggesting we'll run out but it will become more expensive to extract it. Indexing for Passive Aggressive InvestorsSince their beginning, index funds have expanded their breath. You can find a fund which tracks any of the major indices and most industry sectors, such as health care and technology. The first cousin of index funds, Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), do the same thing-they track indices. Recession Investing And The Housing MarketHousing market problems are not limited to new home sales. The value of your home and the market for sales of existing homes is falling. By how much and for how long is the big question. International Investing in The Age of TurbulenceAlan Greenspan writes extensively about the global economy in The Age of Turbulence. He believes there are common dominators to economic success. One is a cultural desire for growth, which includes government integrity, the acceptance of a certain amount of income inequality, incentives to take risk and the willingness to let market forces determine supply and demand.
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