Les Kane

Today, mathematical models play an important role in soccer predictions. Bookmakers, tipsters and experts use these models to estimate a possible outcome of the soccer games and to provide different types of betting tips. For years, the most popular mathematical models were these based on Poisson probability distribution.

Betting tips today strongly relay on computer-based methods for match predictions. Such methods use different mathematical models to estimate possible match outcomes. The most popular mathematical models used for soccer predictions are the Poisson methods.

Betting tips help you predict the right outcome of the soccer match in order to place a bet. The most popular tips are the statistical predictions. Poisson method is the oldest prediction method and the one best known in literature. This article summarizes the Poisson method for soccer prediction, its advantages and disadvantages.

Money management strategies help the punter to choose an optimal stake, and even thought Kelly is known to be the best strategy of them all, it is not necessarily true for all types of betting tips.

There are two important questions any punter has to answer prior to placing his stake: who is the favorite and what bet to place. Online betting resources such as betting tips sites, team analysis made by experts and the media news help you to choose the match favorite and even to estimate the probability of win in no time. However, counting your profits at the end of the season, you find them, at the very least, disappointing. Why? The reason is clear: bad money management.

To be a successful punter in soccer betting, you should intelligently guess two main things: the probability of a win and the size of the stake. Online betting tips and team news can help you to estimate the probability of a win, but choosing the stake size is a more complicated task that requires each punter to decide according to his individual betting strategy.

Making money in soccer betting is possible only when your predictions are significantly different from those of the bookmakers. This is what is known as "value betting".

Soccer experts provide you with betting tips, the media publishes the latest news about the opponent teams and their key players, bookmakers support hundreds of betting methods… However, when you finally place your huge wager on a sure favorite, this is the time to start praying...

The accuracy of bookmakers' soccer predictions differs between top and secondary European leagues. Assuming that bookmakers try to minimize payoffs for the winners, their predictions' accuracy can be estimated by comparing betting odds and real match outcomes. Bettors can make profits by analyzing the accuracy of the bookmakers' predictions for each league and focusing on leagues where their performance is poor.

Bookmakers use their own soccer prediction models. Their odds are usually calculated in a way that minimizes the payoffs for match favorites. The accuracy of these predictions can be analyzed by comparing between the betting odds and the real outcome of soccer matches.