Recent Activity
How many times do they think we need the opinions and promises of the candidates hammered at us before we get it. At what point does the noise become overdone and instead of informing become annoying and defeat its purpose of swaying our vote?
That conservative JP Morgan just lost $2 to $4 billion in a derivatives trade that went bad is just another sign that financial firms are still making high risk bets that can result in another financial meltdown. Where are the promised regulatory reforms?
Many analysts believe commodity price declines are a positive for the economy and the stock market on the theory that consumers will have more spending money in their pockets, and businesses will have lower costs, so hopefully higher earnings. Unfortunately, history does not support that optimism.
The U.S. economic recovery may be stalling, but Europe's problems are much greater. The problem for the U.S. is that Europe's problems cannot help but wash ashore in the U.S.
The global economic recovery is obviously in trouble again. The Fed came to the rescue with more stimulus when it stumbled in each of the last two years, and says it will again if necessary. However, it did not come to the rescue in 2010 and 2011 until the last minute when the stock market was down double-digits and threatening a bear market, and is unlikely to again this year.
It may seem unlikely for the market to repeat the exact same pattern for three straight years. But so far the conditions that drive the market are shaping up exactly as they did in April each of the last two years.
Just when it seemed we could relax, with the U.S. economic recovery surprising with its strength, the Greek debt crisis kicked into the bushes, and most global stock markets in impressive six-month rallies, here comes more dark clouds and rumbles of thunder. Global economic reports were unsettling from all directions this week.
The market loves to climb a wall of fundamental worries. But can it climb the wall of technical worries that is building?
Jobs report and Greek debt deal were great news. But was market's muted response because it fears the positive reports will encourage the Fed to wait too long if the economy needs another burst of stimulus.
The euro-zone debt crisis has faded from headlines. The U.S. economic recovery has surprised with its strength. The S&P 500 has gained 26% in just four months. But the rally is potentially losing momentum. Could the market be saying this is as good as it gets?

