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Home Page  William Kurtz |
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Publishes investment advisory newsletter. Passed NASD Series 65 Investment Adviser exam. Creator of "Candelaabra" technical analysis system. Ret. atty and corporate EVP.
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 Candlestick Patterns Show a Faltering DowDow Industrials prices havNe been in a powerful upsurge since November 5. This movement is reminiscent of the Tulip Bulb Craze, the South Seas Bubble, and the stock market environments of October 1929, of January 2000, and of October 2007. Candlestick Reversal patterns which have now emerged are telling us that the upsurge has a limited life expenctancy now. Black Candlesticks in the Euro and Pound say the Dollar is Alive and WellFor many months, sentiment among the professional commentators and among the public has been that the US Dollar is fading and doomed to extinction. Not so fast: It has reached a major Low as against other major currencies, and is poised for a strong revival as the Euro, the Pound, and others lose relative value. The Final Breaths of the Dying Stock Market Rally: Candlestick Reversal Pattern Tells the StoryThere are many indications that the Rally is ending. The Candlestick price bar of September 23 "bearishly engulfed" four previous price bars; even normally bearish experts have finally thrown in the towel by switching sides and becoming bullish; and we see a new wave of mergers and acquisitions, which we can expect to see at the very top of an economic cycle. The Party is Over and Candlestick Reversal Patterns Are On the ChartsStock Index prices appear to have topped today. Candlestick reversal patterns this week indicate that prices will probably decline soon, if not immediately. The Joy of Looking: Unearthing New Japanese Candlestick Reversal PatternsIt is immensely gratifying to discover Candlestick reversal patterns which are not described in the literature. I found two of them recently, which have proven their potency in the Great Rally of 2009. Rearranging the Deck Chairs on the Titanic?Investment analysts are spending much time and effort arguing over whether the Recovery will continue strongly or not. The question arises? Have they missed the point - is the Recovery already history? Newly Discovered Candlestick Reversal Pattern Pops Up AgainLast January, we identified a variation on the "Evening Star" Candlestick reversal pattern in the Dow Industrials, and watched it duplicate the bearish tendencies of the Evening Star as it drove prices all the way down to the major low of March 6. Now we see what may be another, and very current, example of this variation, in the British Pound. We have given this variation the name "Osaka Clipper." Bearish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern May Signal End of the RallyToday's price bar in the NASDAQ 100 and NASDAQ Composite Indexes appears to be a "Bearish Engulfing Outside-Down Day." Assuming that my incoming electrconic data are accurate, this may be a credible signal that the Rally is over. Target: Net Fuel Cost of ZeroSome airlines and other heavy users of distillate fuels such as Jet Fuel, Heating Oil, and Diesel fuel, use fuel price hedging programs only as defensive measures as "insurance" against a catastrophic increase in prices. That's only half the story. Their Fuel Hedging Departments should be Profit Centers in their own right, their Mission in life being to come as close as possible to the ultimate Target: a Net Fuel Cost of Zero. New Candlestick Pattern Arrives in the NeighborhoodIt's always exciting to come upon a Candlestick pattern that does not appear in the Literature, but is a derivation of a known pattern which you suspect may have some of the same characteristics as the "original." It's even more rewarding when your suspicions come to fulfillment and the pattern does exactly as you thought it might.
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