The Current Economic Crisis Could Turn Out to be a Blessing in Disguise

Let me start off by saying that I am not an accountant nor a business expert, but rather someone who has worked all his adult life, traveled the world, seen a lot of things and met a lot of interesting people - from Presidents through to whole communities infected with HIV.

I could spend a lot of time writing about all the negative impacts of the current crisis, but for the purposes of this article I wanted to suggest a few of the many ways in which I think we will all eventually benefit.

I'm going to keep the points brief and would simply ask readers to think about them, expand upon the themes, and if necessary take issue with my conclusions.

First the banks. There are a lot of greedy people in the world, and bank scandals along with corporate theft are unfortunately here to stay. Human nature dictates this. People will always exploit a loophole no matter how tight the regulations.

However what is certain is that new regulations will now be put in place around the world considerably tightening up loopholes , making banking transactions more transparent , introducing simpler mortgage agreements, and making banks in general act far more responsibly.

Import lessons are being learnt  - how to avoid making the same mistakes again, what to regulate, ways to avoid companies becoming too big to fail, what techniques best stimulate the economy,  and how much or how little money to throw at a particular problem.

Now let me turn to the general public around the globe. This crisis has forced most people to examine their own spending habits, savings and pension plans (or the risks of having neither),  credit card debts, and in short just how much they are spending on everything...from drinks down at the pub to food and the monthly electricity bill.

Already there is evidence emerging that people are trimming their spending and reducing where possible their debts. This is what governments have been urging for decades, although now ironically they would rather we spend like crazy to help get the economy "back on track"!

But  people are now wiser than just a few months ago. Even though you can encourage them to spend more money than they have I am convinced that many  have been so shaken by events that they will simply be a lot more careful with their cash in future - becoming far more prudent in terms of  daily spending, buying a house or car, investing in stocks, or taking out any sort of loans.

These two major transformations ( of people's spending habits and the redesigning and beefed up policing  of the banking industry) I believe will have have profoundly positive benefits in the years ahead.

Cars - For years the auto industry had looked upon greener, more fuel efficient vehicles as a nice idea, but something really to be tinkered with rather than fully exploited.

But now fuel efficient and smaller vehicles are THE priority for all manufacturers, and those that don't commit risk going out of business sooner rather than later. That is not to say that we will all be driving around in hybrids in 2 or 3 years. That is completely unrealistic. But I believe the current crisis has probably brought their widescale introduction forward by at least 5 if not ten years.

The oil industry's powerful lobby may well try and apply pressure to water down greener commitments, but there is simply too much public and political pressure now to prevent real and long overdue change from occuring.

Brazil has really demonstrated what can be achieved where there is a real willingness to make sensible change. A switch to cars powered by sugar cane fuel has reduced debts to the oil cartels and brought significant additional  benefits to the economy.

Oil. This year it has reached record highs and also dropped by a record amount. There must be universal acceptance that allowing such dramatic swings has no long term benefits for anyone - including the producers.

Allow oil to be priced way too high ($150 a barrel) and business expansion starts to dry up, people spend less, transport companies go out of business, heating bills go through the roof, and public spending on all manner of things starts to diminish.

On the other hand if oil is far too cheap then that introduces a whole different set of problems for the producers and distributors. I think the industry will be forced to explore new ways of future oil pricing which offer more stability for both consumers and sellers. The huge swings in price we have seen this year have simply been too dramatic to sustain. If the price of oil continued to bounce up and down so crazily in future years it would be almost impossible to try and price anything... from setting fuel tax levels and prices at the pump to calculating home heating bills. How would Governments be able to accurately predict and budget for income from oil taxation or sales? The numbers are always huge, so any radical alteration introduces major problems for strategic financial planning.

So again another need  for real world evaluation of systems, pricing, and supply issues.

Speculators. Nobody can argue that they haven't caused harm to the financial markets this year. We can argue over how much or how little. Again experts are now assessing their value, the threats they can pose, and if there should be a future in allowing people to bet on whether a company will survive.

I would suggest  - as a general principle - that such forms of gambling should be confined to being placed at a horse racing style bookies establishment, and that the amounts involved should be legally limited to a paltry "fun wager" amount.  Can it be right for a company to simply bet millions of dollars in the hope that in so doing they will wipe a company out by driving down its share price? How does that help the economy in any positive way? Let those same people use their considerable business minds to invest that  money in more productive ways - such as  backing ( through share investments) new companies where they envisage real growth potential.

Short term selling has been restricted in some countries during the current crisis, and I suspect that in time new restrictions will at least reduce the potential for harm to companies, and lead to  bans on the practice in some countries.

Working together. The crisis has forced countries to cooperate, share information and ideas, act in unison, and forge new alliances. There is a definite feeling that we are all in this together, and although individual governments may have their own territorial solutions to the problems there is a realization that the global economy can only "heal" when most of the nations get their financial systems back on track.

Love thy neighbor. A lot of people won't give a dime to a beggar in the street, but there are now numerous cases emerging of people being prepared to make financial sacrifices (particularly in the work place) to prevent misfortune for others. People are now willing to take pay cuts to save their own jobs or those of colleagues. That re-evaluation of the needs of others during a crisis, along with a new found comaradarie of spirit for survival, I believe will bring future benefits. They could be small (from simply new friendships emerging) through to having bigger impacts (such as a new commitment to supporting charities or local good causes). It almost feels like what the Brits call the "Dunkirk Spirit".

In conclusion let me say that there is no doubt that the next 12 months are going to be horrible, and maybe the following year will be a tough one too, with people losing their homes, businesses, jobs, marriages, cars, holidays...you name it.

But when we finally emerge from this greed inspired nightmare, allow a few years of calm to pass, and then reflect on what has then changed as a result of the events of 2008, that is when I believe people will see that everyone has learnt and acted on some important lessons, and that much has been gained.  We can't all be individual financial winners, but we can all benefit from the improvements that have taken place to safeguard our futures on so many levels.