Playing For Keeps

Fantasy Baseball season is upon us once again and if that means figuring out how to put forth a competitive team if not for the sake of pride then at least it is for the sake of not being the butt of every joke in your league. For those of you in leagues which allow you to keep players from year to year, deciding to hang on to and who to let go can be one of the most frustrating experiences you face as you get ready for the season ahead.

Rules for keepers vary greatly from league to league. But regardless of the exact rules generally the principle is that in order to keep a player you have to give something up. This means you have to decided who is first worth keeping and then whether or not you are then willing to give up what you have to give up in order to keep them. Demonstrating the thought process that goes into choosing who are keepers is the purpose of this article and hopefully you will be able to take a nugget or two away from it to apply to your own league.

Let’s set things up here first. Last year my team, the Diamond Doggs, managed to win the salary cap rotisserie league in which they were entered. It was quite a feat but also means that this year I have to draft last in the first round. We have a keeper rule in the league whereby you are allowed to keep up to five players with the following conditions. First you have to pay them an additional $3 more than their salary the year before and second, you have to forfeit draft picks. Which draft picks depend on how many players you choose to keep.

The team’s roster has a lot of young, cheap talent on it heading into the 2009 season. Starting pitchers included Volquez Edinson ($0), James Shields ($11), and Armando Galarraga ($0) as well as veteran stat monsters like Jonathan Paplebon ($21), Jake Peavy ($27) and C.C. Sabathia ($25). In terms of position players the team also sports Mike Aviles ($5), Jed Lowrie ($0), Chase Headley ($3), Jacoby Ellsbury ($15), Carlos Gomez ($4), Hunter Pence ($3), and Lastings Milledge ($6) as well as the heart of the Detroit Tiger’s order in Cabrera ($36) and Ordonez ($27)

So the first thing I did was look at what all of my player’s 2009 salaries were compared to what it would be if I kept them and signed them for $3 more than last year. This is the number one step I take every year because I am looking for bargains that I can sign cheap. After doing that four players immediately jumped out at me:

Edinson - 2008 Salary of $0 and $3 to resign compared to a base 2009 salary of $24

Shields – 2008 Salary of $8 and $11 to resign compared to a base 2009 salary of $23

Pence - 2008 Salary of $3 and $6 to resign compared to a base 2009 salary of $24

Ellsbury – 2008 Salary of $15 and $18 to resign compared to a base 2009 salary of $30

These four were the best bargains by far to resign. So then I had to come up with my list of players that even though they might not have been great “bargains” I still had great hopes for improvement this year. One such player in this category is Mike Aviles. Another is Lasting Milledge.

Then there was my list of big guns that even though it would cost me a pretty penny to resign, it would cost me more not to and then redraft them if that would even be possible. Players in this category were C.C. Sabathia, Jonathan Papelbon and Miguel Cabrera.

Obviously I had five quality players to keep among that group of nine which would mean that I would have to give up several draft picks. And to keep five players the rules of this particular league say that I have to give up picks in round 2, 5, 10, 15 and 18. The amount of salary cap I had going into this year made this decision pretty easy for me. Normally we have cap of $310 BUT you can squirrel away cap money year to year by remaining under your cap during the season and as fate would have it I had done just that, while winning the league none-the-less, and was at the absolute maximum of $350. That extra $40 made saying yes to keeping Sabathia, a top pitcher, in exchange for a second round pick a no brainer.

I quickly eliminated Papelbon from the list because, while I like him and have kept him as a keeper in the past, saves can be gained for a lot less money than he would command. And believe me, I thought long and hard about keeping Cabrera. But being a #10-#15 pick on many depth charts I decided to take a risk that he would still be available come my late first round pick.

Edinson had to be kept. I knew last year he was going to be my diamond in the rough when I drafted him so back he goes on the roster for $3 which I think is MORE than generous in exchange for an 18th round pick. Mike Aviles I chose to resign for $8 (and a 15th round pick) because he is a Short Stop and I do not think last year was a fluke for him. Pence was another no brainer to keep for $6 and a 10th round pick in exchange for 20+ homer and 100 RBI potential. That meant I had one place left.

That position almost went to Milledge but I balked. Somehow I think I can pick him up in the draft still despite his 20 HR 20 SB potential if I act early enough. I really wasn’t going to keep Ellsbury but something inside me told me hang on to him hoping for more power out of him this year and thinking even if not then 50 SB and a potential .285 hitter cannot be all that bad. Besides if it had not been for stolen bases last year I would not have won the league. And he is a 5th to 6th round pick anyway from what I am seeing in draft guides and mock drafts anyway so why not lock him up for a 5th rd pick and at a discount too?

So I hope for those of you in keeper league that you might have seen something in the way that I made my decisions that will help you make similar decisions in your own leagues.