Hard Surface Flooring Forecasts for 2011 & 2016

Product development and innovation in design and styling, in addition to better production processes and new manufacturing technology, will expand hard surface flooring demand by increasing the availability and range of products on the market. Trends toward high-end, luxury products will help boost value gains, although market maturity and growth in demand for lower-priced imports will moderate price increases.

Laminate flooring to post the fastest gains
Through 2011, vinyl will continue to be the leading hard surface floor covering, despite losing significant share to ceramic tile and laminate flooring. Vinyl flooring will, however, continue to benefit from its low price and large selection of colors and patterns, which makes it an appealing alternative especially in the residential market. But the strongest product category in terms of growth remains laminate flooring, which is expected to substantially increase its share of the hard surface flooring market and provide the best opportunities through 2011. This segment has posted double-digit growth rates for the past five years and is expected to continue doing so for at least the next five. Gains will be driven by the continuing popularity and increasing consumer familiarity with the performance and benefits of laminate flooring. Moreover, laminate flooring prices are generally lower compared to the flooring choices it mimics, such as hardwood. Nevertheless, consumer interest in highend flooring products will aid demand for wood and ceramic tile flooring going forward, especially as the 45 year-old and older demographic segment, which typically has the greatest spending power, becomes larger.

Nonresidential building market to grow the fastest
The nonresidential building market is expected to provide great opportunities for hard surface flooring, with demand rising to almost six billion square feet. Demand for both new and replacement flooring will see strong growth in all nonresidential building segments, which include office and commercial buildings, institutional buildings, industrial structures and other nonresidential buildings. The residential building market will grow at a slower pace than during the 2001 to 2006 period. Weakness in the singlefamily housing market will be somewhat offset by rebounds in multiunit and manufactured housing. Overall growth in hard surface flooring demand in this segment will mostly be supported by residential repair and replacement spending. Moderate increases in transportation equipment production will benefit demand for hard surface flooring in motor and recreational vehicles, boats and aircrafts.

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