Retail Trends in 2011

Retailers are expecting lackluster results for the rest of this year, but they are still confident that consumers will be spending in the fourth quarter. The gross national product (GNP), an indicator of the United States economy, grew 1.8 percent in the first quarter of 2011, dropping from a 3.1 percent growth rate in the last quarter of 2010.

Retailers are concerned with rising energy costs because, according to STORES Media, the publishing and communications group of the National Retail Federation (NRF), "rising energy costs cut two ways for retailers: They raise operating costs and take discretionary funds out of consumers' pockets. Energy costs also factor into rising food prices, as do severe weather conditions in food-producing regions and the increased consumption of food commodities in developing countries around the globe."

They also report "steady-if-unspectacular private sector job growth" and they believe that the federal payroll tax cut has "offset some of the rise in food and fuel costs". NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz sees these positive economic indicators as helping to "boost consumers' confidence and support spending, but plenty of other concerns exist which could very easily shift consumers' spending habits, including decreasing home prices, high unemployment levels and rising costs at the pump."
Ben Hackett has over 30 years experience in the ocean shipping and transportation industry. He is the founder of Hackett Associates, and he reports, "The low level of inventories-to-sales ratios suggest that import container flows will continue at their suppressed levels for the summer. On the bright side, there will be no imminent boom or bust in volumes as we experienced in 2007 and 2010."

STORES Media reports in an article on their web site they say that, "These are the times that test retailers' mettle. The recession is over — and has been for nearly two years — but high unemployment and under-employment and persistent problems in the housing market continue to keep consumer spending in check."

However, due to economy downturns, retailers have learned how to better manage their inventories over the last couple of years. They feel prepared to handle the challenges that the economy may throw at them. Import volumes in the <a rel="nofollow" onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackPageview', '/outgoing/article_exit_link/5177288']);" href="http://www.shiplilly.com/"title="Ocean Shipping">ocean shipping</a> industry are still expected to increase this fall, indicating that retailers are expecting consumers to up their spending in the fourth quarter of 2011.

An article about ocean freight and the maritime industry on the Journal of Commerce web site states that increases are expected to return around September, because retailers are beginning to stock up for the holiday season. "Volume forecast at 1.47 million TEUs, up 10 percent from last year. October is forecast at 1.53 million TEUs, up 18 percent, and November at 1.41 million TEUs, up 19 percent. The first half of 2011 is estimated at 7.2 million TEUs, up 5 percent from the first half of 2010."

Global Port Tracker forecasts a 6.2 percent growth to 15.7 million TEU forecast for 2011. They feel that this forecast "remains realistic under the circumstances." Imports during 2010 totaled 14.7 million TEU, a 16 percent increase over 2009, according to the Journal of Commerce.