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If Israel has to enjoy peace on its borders, Benjamin Netanyahu needs to get into peace negotiations quickly with not only the Palestinians but also with the Syrians and the Lebanese. Syria is critical to the success of peace as it has the Western powers courting it and any deal with them will be useful in dealing with the Palestinians.
Syria needs to come into the picture only after the Palestinians agree to any peace talks and that depends on the Hamas as well as the Iranians. Moreover, the tension in Teheran also needs to be solved. Earlier attempts to woo the Hamas by the West have not been positive and that may have encouraged them to try courting Syria.
That Tehran still exerts great influence in the way talks happen was demonstrated in the recent failure of the "Proximity" discussions, where despite the best efforts of the Hamas Prime Minister Haniyya and President Abbas, things did not fructify.
The attempt of the West according to David Martin Abrahams to woo the Hamas got unstuck due to the marginalization of Dr.Yusuf and the deposition of Gazi Hamad to look after the now no longer active Rafah station. These two gentlemen who were close advisors to Haniyya were in favor of negotiations with the West but were thus thwarted by their opponents.
Tehran has managed to sway the opinion of the Hamas away from talks in pursuit of its own ambition of becoming a nuclear power. The only way to do this is by preventing Israel from attacking its facilities and for this they sorely require the support from the Gaza Strip. Tehran is aware that any positive developments arising out of talks by the West with the Hamas will not be useful to it in its endeavor to seek this support from the Gaza. David Martin Abrahams feels that by doing this, Tehran seems to suggest that any attack by Israel on Iran will be met with retaliation from the Gaza and from Lebanon.
It is thus clear that irrespective of the leadership emerging in Tehran over the next couple of months, this strategy will not change and Tehran will want to continue using Gaza as a factor to enable it to become a nuclear power and merely talking to the Hamas will not bring peace along the borders of Israel as Hamas will act as per what Tehran tells them to do.
Things look bleak if President Ahmedinejad continues in power and he is one who does not wish to talk to the West. The other alternative is to bring in Russia along with Tony Blair to try and fashion a deal that will ultimately bring peace to the borders of Israel.
President Obama was right when he mentioned that the world is keenly watching the developments in Tehran, as they will have far reaching implications in future.
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