Rpt-global markets weekahead
fluctuations in financial markets due to the crisis in the Middle East have done little to stop investors are preparing for a rally also in stocks and other riskier assets such as economic growth accelerates in the world.
In fact, rising oil prices and food – the former fueled by the riots in Egypt and Tunisia – are reminding investors of the risks of rising inflation, which will also strengthen the case of stock, materials premiums and other risky assets rather than bonds and money market instruments.
World's stock of fish measured by MSCI. MIWD00000PUS discard the already loss last week hit a maximum of 29 months. The benchmark index rose 3.4 percent from the beginning and has progressed to post its biggest weekly for two months.
Risk aversion has also shown temporary. The VIX – Wall Street fear gauge – fell below 17 percent. VIX on Thursday, having briefly jumped above 20 last week.
"Rising energy and food have pushed up headline inflation in recent months. As global economic growth has taken at the same time, there is increasing risk that the price increase is not just a temporary phenomenon," said Philipp Baertschi, president of the Investment Committee of Bank Sarasin.
"The economic environment is risky assets should continue to be positive in the coming months. So, we take our little overweight in equities. We try to apply the fixes for risky assets to build."
He said a correction of 50-10 percent of the stocks is now overdue given the virtual non-stop rally since September 2010, adding that Sarasin supports the energy and technology.
Studies have shown that overall activity in the services sector grew strongly in the United States and Europe in January, mirroring similar reports, global production and expectations of a healthy global growth would be 4 per cent in 2011.
And cash-rich firms are on a shopping spree, which shows they are confident about an economic recovery.
Thomson Reuters data show the value of mergers and acquisitions worldwide totaled 309.6 billion dollars so far this year, up 69 percent from 2010 and marking the best start for the M & A since 2000 . Financials, materials, energy and energy accounted for nearly two-thirds of the total this year.
Companies in the S & P 500. SPX – 58 percent of which reported profits in the fourth quarter – Quarterly operating income increased by about 37 percent.
Lipper data show stocks of emerging markets suffered a record net redemptions of $ 4.1 billion for the week ending February 2, although it comes after a heavy inflows attracted in 2010.
moral hazard of investors was intact, with stocks in the United States to attract a net 4.11 billion. Investors also withdrew 57.5 billion U.S. dollars of the money market funds in the last three weeks.
Volatility is expected when the Egyptian stock market again next week when the index fell more than 21 percent. EGX30 beginning of the year. But the long-term investors still see the value of the largest economies of North Africa.
A growing threat to the economic outlook is otherwise favorable inflation – which is partly a source of instability in the Middle East.
Brent crude rose to $ 103.37 on Thursday, its highest level since September 2008. Global food prices followed by the UN Food and Agriculture reached its highest level in January, a problem known to deteriorate after a massive snowstorm in the U.S. and floods in Australia.
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