Australia Telecommunications Report Q2 2010
Latest published data by Australia's operators for YE09 has seen BMI update its mobile forecasts. There were around 25.63mn mobile subscribers, indicating the market continues to report solid growth despite penetration rates in excess of 100%. During 2009, the number of mobile subscribers expanded by 10%, up from 8.5% y-o-y rise in 2008 and 6.9% y-o-y increase in 2007.
Driving this demand for mobile subscriptions are the competitively priced tariffs on offer by mobile operators keen to acquire greater market share, despite such maturity in the sector. This has taken on different approaches by operators, with Telstra pursuing low-end customers by launching affordable prepaid tariffs and leading to strong prepaid growth of 23.8% during 2009, compared to postpaid growth of 2.3% in the same period. Optus, on the other hand, has sought high-value customers, and the increased smartphone penetration rates have enabled it to realise a much stronger postpaid subscriber mix, up by 15.9% y-o-y (vs a 1.4% y-o-y increase in prepaid) and leading to an increase in blended ARPU. We have revised our mobile forecasts and expect that during 2010 the sector will expand by 8.2%, a level comparable to 2008, before falling further to expand by 4.6% during 2011 to reach a subscriber base total of a little more than 29mn. BMI forecasts that the Australian economy will worsen in 2011 compared to already tough economic conditions in 2009 and 2010, which we believe could see consumers tighten their spending belts even further.
However, this should not significantly impact the robust growth in wireless broadband subscriptions. Fixed broadband customers are migrating to wireless alternatives, as they come to rely on mobile-only communication access, in part spurred by a need to reduce household costs. Although, wireless broadband remains far from overtaking fixed broadband figures, if growth rates continue along their current path, it will not be long before they do.
Indeed, wireless broadband has received support from Australia's Department of Broadband, Communications and the Digital Economy, which published a green paper in January 2010, outlining plans to sell 126MHz of spectrum currently used to provide analogue TV services, which is viewed by existing Australian operators as a means of significantly upgrading capacity on their wireless broadband networks. In rural areas, where population density is lower, 140MHz of spectrum could become available, providing a greater incentive for operators such as SingTel Optus, Vodafone and Telstra to extend mobile broadband coverage to these areas, particularly if they opt to deploy more powerful 4G technologies such as LTE.
Executive Summary
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Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2007-2014
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile ARPU - Historical Data & Forecasts (AUD), 2007-
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Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2007-2014
Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2007-2014
Table: Australian Mobile Market, December 2009
Table: Australia 3G Market, December 2009
Table: Mobile Contract Wins
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Table: Telstra's Mobile Revenue Breakdown (AUDmn)
Table: Selected VAS Services
Table: Australia Mobile Market Overview
Table: Telstra Fixed Lines In Service (mn)
Table: Telstra Fixed-Line Call Traffic
Table: Australia Dial-up And Broadband Internet Subscriptions, 2006-2008
Table: Australian Broadband Market, FY08-FY09
Table: Wireline Contract Wins
Table: Key Players - Australian Telecoms Sector
Table: Selected Operators - Financial Indicators, 2003-2008 (US$mn)
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Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2012
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Table: Ratings Indicators
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