Three Methods to Trade (or Not Trade) Consolidating E-Mini Contract Patterns
It goes without saying that every e-mini day trader prefers to trade a trending market, they are the easiest to trade and have the highest probability trades for success. Unfortunately, markets tend to trend only about 30% of the time. The remainder of the trading session consists of normal backing and filling operations, sometimes referred to as "market noise."
As a e-mini day trader, I prefer to avoid trading during periods of market noise over trending markets, which only makes sense. But there are times that the market presents some trading opportunities during periods of consolidation. From the onset, though, I'll recommend very conservative e-mini trading techniques in consolidating markets as the price action can be very unpredictable. Specifically, I would trade fewer contracts than normal and make sure that a trade does not run away to the downside from your profit target. Of course, this is easier said than done and it takes extreme vigilance to successfully day trade periods of market noise. But it can be done.
1. The optimal e-mini consolidating market will follow a repetitive serpentine pattern rising and falling at nearly the same level in each cycle. Using strict scalping technique, a e-mini day trader can do quite well as the market tends to stay in these cycles for extended periods of time. The technique to day trade this type of market is relatively easy; you would place a support and resistance lines at the peak of each cycle and the trough of the cycle. I generally set my stops tighter than usual when employing this technique and set my profit targets to whatever length the cycles are averaging. Obviously, if the peaks are occurring 12 ticks from the average trough, it would be unwise to set your profit target at 26 ticks. Using oscillators, you can generally target the peaks and troughs and trade them accordingly, either long or short. I have made a good deal of money trading and this particular style.
2. If is the consolidation period is narrowing into a wedge shape, I will often put buy and sell orders one point above and below the range of the narrowing market. In doing this, I can take advantage of any breakout or breakdown that will occur. Consolidating markets that show a tendency to narrow are often followed by a significant breakout or breakdown. By putting a buy order above the established range, you will pick up the trade if it breaks out long. Just the opposite, by establishing a sell order just below the range of the consolidation, you will pick up a breakdown in the day trading action and potentially capitalize on it. This day trading technique can be very effective, but does carry some risks should the market widen just a bit and then return to the consolidation pattern.
3. There are some consolidating patterns that are indecipherable in terms of patterning. My recommendation is to avoid trading this sort of consolidating market, as the traders have not established any sort of discernible pattern during the period of market noise. At best, this type of consolidation pattern is treacherous. As I said, I avoid market noise that displays a high degree of randomness in the price action.
In summary, all e-mini day traders prefer to trade trending markets. But there are some non-trending markets that display enough movement and enough predictability where a trader can be effective in choosing potential trades. However, all consolidating patterns are not created equally and highly random consolidation patterns should be avoided.
Questions and Answers
Over trading and trading too many contracts are common characteristics of the hard charging e-mini trader; but their exuberance might be put to better use if they held off a few years and gained some valuable experience to match their aggressive trading style.
Price action on a trading chart is often overlooked in favor of oscillators and indicators. Pure oscillator traders are missing out on a wealth of information in price action and price patterns.
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I've been writing some about trend lines lately and noted my observation, in several of the articles, of the declining use of this valuable charting tool. I don't have any illusions that a couple of articles by a relatively unknown author will have any effect on the use of these lines; but if just a couple of traders see the value of trending lines and e-mini trading, then I suppose I have done my job.
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