DROUGHT LIKE SITUATION OF 2009 IN ORISSA

                 DROUGHT LIKE SITUATION OF 2009 IN ORISSA

                                                                       By Dr. Ashok Kumar Panigrahi,

     In analyzing the genesis of the current drought like situation in the whole of eastern India and especially in the state of Orissa, one need to have a look in to the amount of precipitation the region received in the past couple of months preceding June,2009. Normally Orissa does receive some though scanty precipitation between the months of November and April every year. In 2004-05, it was around 180 mms, in 2005-06, 80 mms, in 2006-07, 100 mms, in 2007-08, 30 mms compensated by over 100 mms in May and over 600 mms in June that year. But in 2008-09, the amount of precipitation received between the months of November and March was absolutely zero and a little over 200 mms between April and June. More over, the cyclone Aila that struck the Bengal coast on 25 May, 2009 soaked up much of atmospheric moisture there by enhancing the dry spell through out June, 2009. This dry spell coupled with the heat wave brought in by the western winds dried up the water bodies in the state, both natural and man made to a state of their non existence. The situation is so precarious that villagers were forced to travel miles for portable water and the same was rationed in the towns and cities nearly all over Orissa.

              Mercury was above 40oC in the state in May and in June, it further increased to 45oC in most places in the state, some where reaching as high as 47oC. The situation was further compounded by an unusually long spell of dry ness with the rain eluding the state for over 5 months at a stretch, from November 08 to April 09. The amount of precipitation received between April and June was meager for the total moisture received being just a little over 200 mms in 18 days, the lowest in last 10 years, even including the impact of the cyclone Aila that lasted for full 3 days. Consequently, most water bodies in the state dried up jeopardizing rabi vegetable cultivation in the state that spiraled up the vegetable prices. Reservoirs of the state including Hirakud dipped below the minimum levels there by reducing power generation substantially.

            A study of the rain fall data of the coastal district of Balasore during the period of study will show the precarious situation of the state is currently going through as a whole. The district received 300 mms in 2001, 285.9 mms in 2002, 292.03 mms in 2003, 254.3 mms in 2004, 376.8 mms in 2005, 224 mms in 2006, 316 mms in 2007 and 613 mms in 2008. The total rain fall received in the agriculturally important month of June, 2009 is just about 70 mms, said to be the lowest in the last 30 years as per the official records available with the district administration. The state average for the same period is just 92.7 mms as compared to the normal206.1 mms. Kharif cultivation in the state is bound to suffer irreparably if the current adverse situation continues beyond the month of June. Out of the total of 4.8 million hectares of arable land in the state, kharif paddy is cultivated in more than 4.2 million hectares and other crops like vegetables, pulses and millets are cultivated in the rest land. The total area under irrigation being limited to just 2%, most kharif cultivation is rain fed. With the water bodies having dried up and no rain received in June, all kharif cultivation will depend on rain fall. Most native paddy crop being of longer duration and photo sensitive, will fail and farmers have to depend on the shorter duration-drought resistant varieties most of which they have lost in their preference for the HYVs. The problem with the HYVs is that they are water demanding. Besides, depleted rain will increase the pest and disease problems which will be difficult to control. There fore, the current situation in Orissa is disastrous.

Delayed or failed monsoon of 2009.

              Global weather pattern is controlled by ENSO that is El Nino-La Nina Southern Oscillation. Precisely, this refers to the changes in the surface temperature of the Pacific. The weather pattern in the Asia-Oceania has never been always the same. There are years which are called El Nino years or drought years and others, La Nina years or wet years. The year 2009 in India is an El Nino year, meaning drought year when drought will dominate and there will be scanty rain fall.

               Indian monsoon is a fall out of global weather pattern. The south westerly rain bearing wind cause rain heavily in the south-west and scantily in the north, where as the rain in the east including north-east and south-east is caused mostly by deep depressions in the Bay of Bengal. These depressions occurring in the northern part of the sea cause rain in eastern India which is often accompanied with high wind flow(some times called, cyclones). Hey occur between May to September often in October also. Depressions occurring in the southern part of the sea, mostly in October-November cause rain in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, sometimes in Orissa also. When these depressions are initiated after a gap, they acquire ferocity leading to a cyclonic storm. There fore, Orissa being situated in the middle of east India experience cyclones mostly in the months of May and October-November. Cyclone Aila of May 2009 and Orissa super cyclone of October 1999 are examples. Eastern India hardly receive any rain from the south westerly monsoon although it strikes the states like Orissa and West Bengal in the first/second week of June every year. The rain received in these states including Orissa between June and October are mostly from the deep depressions in the Bay of Bengal and scantily from the monsoon clouds. For example, let us examine the case of Balasore, a coastal town of Orissa, just 10 kms from the sea. It received rain in the past few years as in table below.

1. Sl.No.    Year        Total rain fall      Total No. of           Total No. of                 Remarks

                              received (mm)      Rainy Days      depressions in the sea

-------    ---------    ------------------     ----------------     --------------------------     ------------

1. 2006              1557.5                    87                         23                      No rain in Jan-                          
                                                                                                                            March and
                                                                                                                            December
2. 2007               1636.8                   74                         20                        --do—
3. 2008               1530.2                   73                         16                       No rain in Jan-                         
                                                                                                                            March, November-
                                                                                                                            December
4. 2009

        (till 30 June)          282                      18                           2                      Cyclone Aila, 24-
                                                                                                                         26 May, 2009. 

               The situation in coastal Orissa is more or less the same. The monsoon which officially struck Orissa on 26 Jun e caused just 70 mms rain; 30 mms on 26th. and 12 mms on  28th.June,2009 at Balasore. It then vanished to thin year leaving Orissa to wait till depressions appear in the Bay of Bengal through rise in its surface temperature. Normally by this time (end of June), there occurred 8 depressions in 2006, 7 in 2007 and 5 in 2008. As against this, there occurred just 2 depressions in 2009 including cyclone Aila. The 2 factors identified for the delayed or failed monsoon of 2009 are- i. slow rise in the sea surface temperature and             ii. Cyclone Aila soaked too much atmospheric moisture. Both of these are held responsible for thus far failed monsoon in eastern India including Orissa this year.