The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth. Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, "Horse Racing is in my blood." To see all Bill's horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html , Bill's handicapping store.
While it is true that there are no sure things in life and especially in horse racing, there are some things that just keep re-occurring and betting on them when they are available is one way to make money betting on horse races. Some people say that the win bet is the best bet in horse racing. Other people prefer an exotic, like the pick six, for instance, because you only pay breakage and a takeout on one bet but get a large pool based on many combinations.
In my opinion, the best bet is one that has proven successful and offers an edge that is overlooked by the public. You could call it an overlay, though in this case it is hard to say just what fair odds may be because it varies according to the size of the field and the merits of the other horses.
There is one horse, however, that has to meet certain requirements in order for me to bet on what I consider the best bet. The first thing I look for is a favorite that has never raced at the distance, or on the surface that it is being asked to perform on today. An example would be a promising three year old that has raced well on dirt before, but is now trying the grass for the first time. Another example might be a horse that has won at the 6 furlong distance but never won at a mile or more and is racing in a route today.
Any favorite that is being asked to do something it hasn't proven that it can do is suspect, in my opinion. Betting on such an animal is my definition of true gambling as opposed to taking a calculated risk and betting on a horse race. While the favorite may well live up to its breeding or expectations and win the race, if it hasn't proven it can do it, then it is just too risky.
But just betting against such favorites is not a great idea of itself, there is one other condition to be met. When a favorite is a false favorite because it has never done what is being asked of it, I also like to see a horse in the race that has proven itself on the same surface and at the same distance. These types will often win and surprise the betting public, but only if the public has overestimated the chances of the favorite based on a big race or speed figures in another race.
I have even seen horses made the favorite because they won a maiden race and had sold at auction for a large sum of money. If you want to learn about risky investments, start buying yearlings at huge prices. You would be surprised at how many never make it to the races or who just turn out to be mediocre horses. Yet these horses are often favorites against less pricey horses who have won at the same conditions as today’s race.
The moral of this story is to go with a proven winner when the favorite is an unknown quantity. You will find this situation repeated several times a week at most race tracks and you will be amazed at how often the crowd repeats the same mistakes.
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