The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth. Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, "Horse Racing is in my blood." To see all Bill's horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html , Bill's handicapping store.
Would you like to having a winning connection for long shots? Let's face it, while it is nice to be able to grind out a profit picking winners, there is nothing like making that big score with a horse at a huge price. It is a boost to the ego and a surge in the bankroll. Simply put, longshots are where the big money is in horse racing.
But cashing a big win ticket is no easy matter, even though long priced horses win every day. Just betting on a horse because it is at long odds is financial suicide. Still, there are people who make a living from playing strictly longshots and that is because they know the secrets.
While the best way to find a good winner is to be on the inside and know the owner, trainer, jockey, in other words, the connections, the next best thing is being on the outside but figuring them out anyway. How do you find out the secret and know when these people are setting up a good winner? The answer is that you profile them.
Profiling, in horse racing handicapping, is spotting a circumstance that happens more than once. First, you write down everything you can about a longshot that just won. What class race it was, the age of the horse (let's face it, some trainers are great with maidens or young horses) the odds in the morning line and the odds at post time.
Those are just some of the things you should write down. The best way to really hunt longshots and to make a lot of winning bets, is to keep the program page and past performances with the longshot and then compare it to the next horse that owner, jockey, trainer combo has going.
People are creatures of habit and when they figure out something that works, they will do it over and over again. For instance, a horse may get a bullet work, but then in its next race, despite getting off to a good start, fade in the backstretch. The question is, of course, was the rider really trying to win, or was he or she told to hold back? That bullet work may have driven the odds down farther than the connections wanted them and they may wait til' their next race to make a big score at higher odds.
Your job is to be a detective and to spot that situation. The thing is, every longshot, like every other horse in the race, leaves a paper trail. Most handicappers fail to look over the trail to see a pattern that is repeated. If you do this you can develop a list of trainers and owners who pull these types of stunts over and over and you will know when to bet them just by recognizing the pattern.
Is finding good longshot bets work? It sure is, but it is worth it. It all starts with the connections and they are listed in the program for all the world to see. So why is it a secret? Because most people are too lazy to take the time to keep good notes about longshots and to pay attention to those connections the next time they have a horse running.
Naturally, every horse they have that goes off at long odds won't win, but there will be a pattern in the running lines and betting patterns that you will be able to spot and after a while, you'll have a list of money makers that will keep you in the short line.
Enjoy your days at the races.
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