Long shots are where the money is in horse racing. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/longshotrater.html and get the truth about finding good long shot bets. Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, "Horse Racing is in my blood." To see all Bill's horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html , Bill's handicapping store.
People have been betting on horse races for hundreds, if not thousands of years. The art of handicapping horse races has developed over the years into a fine science and art and the advent of computers has improved it many times. Yet, on any given day, at any given race track, horses continue to win races and to pay big prices.
No matter how much information is available to the betting public, they still sometimes fail to spot a horse that will win at long odds. Some people say it is because of the very nature of horse racing and the natural world. Horses are living creatures and therefore, unpredictable and subject to change. While that may be true, it doesn't account for the many longshots who show promise in one way or another, qualify for the conditions of a race, and then win it.
The real reason that longshots are found in the winners circle is the betting public. While there are some astute handicappers who break down a race and methodically piece it together until they can assess a fair value and predict each runner's chances of winning, they are in the minority. There are many more people who use just one factor to determine who they will bet on.
While that one factor may vary from horse player to horse player, it is safe to assume that a portion of the win pool is determined by the morning line odds. Some bettors look no farther than the morning line and will bet the morning line favorite in almost every race. They often call themselves handicappers. Therefore, as much as 20% of the money bet on the favorite may be based solely on the morning line. I have no statistics and know of no studies that have been done on this subject, but based on my experience at the track, I'd say this is a fair guess.
Other punters simply bet the jockey or trainer they like. They search the program, or simply watch the post parade and spot their favorite rider or conditioner and that is where the win money goes. The point I am trying to make is that a lot of the money that goes into the win pool does so capriciously. While the reasoning of the bettors may be sound enough, it isn't researched enough.
A good handicapper will spot a few factors that don't seem to make sense and will dig deeper. He or she may notice that this particular horse did win at this level before, but is now a long shot. Digging deeper he or she may find that the horse had excuses in its last races or has just moved to a better trainer or one who specializes in horses of this type.
The point is, it takes time and effort to find good long shot bets, but they are out there. If you know what to look for and are willing to do the research, you can be one of the few who cashes that big, heart pounding ticket.
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