Key points on the Mid-Cycle Pause theory include:
• unemployment rates are very low
• baby boomer retirement is starting to accelerate skilled worker shortages
• tighter immigration policy post 9/11 are also restricting skilled worker shortages
• The economy is decelerating. U.S. GDP dropped from 2.6 % growth in Q2 06 to 1.6% growth in Q3 06.
• GDP growth in 2005 was 3.3%
• the federal reserve has stopped interest rate increases (after 16 consecutive increases) due to waning inflation concerns and greater worries about the economy slowing
• oil prices have stabilized, thus reducing pressure on inflation
• Looking at staffing, all the major us general staffing companies reported low single digit or negative sales growth in Q3 06.
• staffing penetration rate has been flat all year at 1.92% of total employment
• Permanent placement revenues have remained strong; trending up.
ResourceMFG division vice-president, Julie Maydew suggests, “The mid-cycle pause theory is having a significant impact on the function of manufacturing placement throughout the U.S. Due to flat demand, shrinking supply of labor, and slowing economy it appears that any growth in the staffing sector will come from increasing prices. The trends are very similar to the last soft landing in the economy in 1995-1996. The only thing not present now is the potential internet bubble that fueled growth form 1996-2000. That said the shrinking labor pool and more just in time distribution/build to order manufacturing will create more volatility in demand.”
This theory should be good for manufacturing staffing leader ResourceMFG.
About ResourceMFG:
ResourceMFG is the nation's leading manufacturing support organization. It focuses on the demands of the manufacturing sector to serve the needs of employees and customers. The company has immersed themselves in the manufacturing community and has close relationships with support organizations such as The National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) and The American Production and Inventory Control Society (APICS).
ResourceMFG is involved with the total spectrum of manufacturing positions including production, quality, maintenance, supervision, and all levels of management. The company serves a wide variety of industry segments that include automotive, electronic, machining, sheet metal, fabrication, and many other specialized producers.
The foundation of ResourceMFG is a commitment to understanding the specialized needs of clients, employees, and the community, which provide the foundation for success. Like the manufacturers they represent there is a philosophy of continuous improvement. ResourceMFG is dedicated to improving programs, processes, training and people to meet the diverse needs of the US manufacturing sector. A benchmark of the organization is on time delivery. The company understands manufacturing professionals and provides excellent programs and productive employees. ResourceMFG delivers the right person with the right skills at the right time.
Manufacturing is the sole focus of ResourceMFG allowing a better manufacturing workforce. ResourceMFG understands that it takes good people to get good results. Experienced manufacturing professionals know how to find the talent needed to deliver results for manufacturing businesses. ResourceMFG has been nationally recognized for having workforce management initiatives that impact the bottom line. In 2006 ResourceMFG won the Optimas award for "Financial Impact." This value allows the company to provide award winning workforce management capabilities and processes that produce better results. The key to delivering better manufacturing employees lies in the fact that it is all that ResourceMFG does. With superior screening, OSHA outreach programs and ongoing safety training, ResourceMFG delivers the kind of workers needed for every manufacturing facility.
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