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Good news for Russia and former CIS Alumina producers

Good news for CIS Alumina producers are coming for already last 3 months from the London Metal Exchange. The Aluminum prices reaching its maximum of 3300 USD/t in the July 2008 and falling down to 1250 USD/t in February 2009 are steadily growing and have reached September 2009 the level of 1921 USD/t. According to Mr. Alexey Arnautov, RUSAL‘s Director of Aluminum division (interview to most important Russian information agency Interfax in July 2009) the minimum production costs of 1 t of Aluminum worldwide is not able to be less than 1400 USD/t.

RUSAL is the main Russian producer of both Aluminum and Alumina having 12% of entire global output of primary Aluminum and 15% of the world’s Alumina production which operates in 19 countries on 5 continents. RUSAL has reduced Aluminum production in first 6 months of 2009 by 10% (to 1,98 mln tons) and Alumina by 34% (to 3,7 mln.t). But present  Aluminum price increase gives a good chance for RUSAL’s Alumina factories (producing raw material Al2O3 or Aluminum Oxide for further Aluminum distillation by electrolyses): Nikolayevsky Alumina plant (Ukraine)- production 1446 thou. tons of Alumina, Bogoslavsky Alumina factory (Siberia, Russia) - 1084 thou. tons, Achinsk Alumina factory (Siberia, Russia) - 1069 thou. tons and Boxitogorsk Alumina factory (St. Petersburg region, Russia) - 156 thou. tons (all the production data relates to 2008 figures according to RUSAL’s Web site).

One other former CIS Alumina independent producer - Pavlodar Alumina plant (present name “Aluminum of Kazakhstan”, design Alumina capacity - 1,5 mln.t/annum , belongs to Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation) according to February 2009 report made by Kazakhstan Institute of World Economy and Politics is planning to increase the production in 2009 by 300 thou.t  notwithstanding the crises and start-up  a new Aluminum distillation factory in Pavlodar.

Russian experts even as late as July this year were predicting that Aluminum world market prices will stabilize below production costs meaning the collapse of the whole industry. It is great that their forecasts didn't come true.

Anton Chernoberezhsky

St. Petersburg located independent business consultant for introduction Western companies to Russian industrial market, Ph. D. (Physical Chemistry). Assistance to start and increase your business in Russia and CIS countries (industrial equipment and chemicals for chemical, petrochemical, food, pulp and paper industry, coal washing, ore processing). Tel. + 7 911 260 63 06 E-mail: ac@ac-consulting.ru Skype: anton. chernoberezhsky Website: http://ac-consulting.ru

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