Steven Hansen (A.K.A "The Hand") was born, raised and educated in California. Steven worked for 25 years for a major international engineering and construction corporation. He has lived outside of the USA almost continuously since 1978. Steven retired in 1995 to sail the world. He is still sailing today and is currently located in Malaysia.
On the financial side, Steven is a pragmatist. His motto is to "go with the flow" and believes that the only correct investing method is one which makes you money both short and long term. He does not fall in love with philosophies – only results. He has invested well enough to retire at 45 and stay retired.
Currently Steven is consulting in corporate organization, logistics and contracts. In addition, he is a financial / economic analyst whose articles appear across the internet concerning general economic analysis - and specific analysis of equity market corporations.
There are a lot of people telling you that there is good value in the markets, and that the current equity prices make good long term plays. The averages show the equities prices are 40% off of their peaks. If you accept that we are currently in a recession, view the percentage contraction of earnings in each of the last five recessions for the S&P 500:
According to Business Cycle, who creates a forward economic indicating index, the economic growth is still very negative, and is more negative than any time in their six decades of analysis. Business Cycle produces economic outlook for government and business. The real concern at this point is the rate of decline of the economy - which appears to be in free fall.
The liquidity pumped into the financial system by the FED, in certain ways is beginning to work. The ultimate purpose is to free up credit. Recovery cannot occur without a functioning credit market. However, this liquidity is not by itself a cure for the economy.
Additionally, we are saddling the economy with additional debt which is now over $10 trillion dollars - over 70% of GDP (gross domestic product). At no time since the end of World War II has this large of debt been accumulated. This will also will tend to blunt a quick recovery.
The talking heads and vested interests are telling you it is time to buy! This is no better time to buy than 6 months ago. The recession has not set in, and the depth or length of a recession are unknown. Stay in cash on the sidelines until you understand the size of the recession.
Copyright Nesnah Associates Enterprises Limited
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