Wal Mart Stock - WMT Stock - Learn About Wal Mart Stores
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Wal Mart has been trading in the $45 to $60 range for basically the last 10 years. The stock is yielding a decent 2.3% and is valued at around 15 times earnings. Most analysts seem to love Wal Mart because it appears to be a perfect defensive stock: when the economy crumbles, people stop buying expensive clothes and household goods and spend their money at discounters instead. And Wal Mart is definitely king of all discount stores. This view did play out to a certain extent during the destruction of fall 2008 as the company held its value reasonably well (down about 20%) compared to the markets in general.
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However, the proper time to buy a defensive stock isn’t when the economy is in the toilet. At that point, everyone has already purchased these companies, pushing up their multiples and making firms like Wal Mart a much less attractive purchase. Yet – throughout the winter months, the analysts kept recommending Wal Mart. And what exactly did that achieve? The market is up 30% off its lows, while the firm’s shares are just a couple dollars off their 52 week low. Now I don’t forecast huge earnings growth from the company moving forward, it’s slowly reaching critical mass in terms of stores and market share. This isn’t really a bad thing, but you shouldn’t be investing in this company looking for growth that will not show up.
There is nothing wrong with investing in Wal Mart – I can see it moving back into the middle of its trading range (55$) over the next few months. But if you’re somewhat confident in the markets, you can achieve significantly better returns investing in almost anything else. My advice is to stay clear of Wal Mart for the next few years and maybe consider purchasing it the next time the American economy is behaving well and nobody is expecting another recession (because another recession is bound to happen sometime).
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