Estimating the Scope and Impact of Potential Changes

At this stage of the process, estimating the scope of the potential change is probably an intuitive piece of work. You want to invite creative thinking but not to generate reams of junk. The players won't have much tolerance for that. Also, you don't want to zero in on a specific "fix" just yet, but there still has to be sufficient reality
and credibility in this judgment to complete the work of Task I. Again, large-group processes employing subject-matter experts from multiple levels of the organization may help you finish this piece of work expeditiously and with credibility. Regardless of how you approach it, we suggest you use The Wheel to structure your exploration and keep track of the potential changes on each of the elements. We recommend that you again start in the north (top) and progress clockwise. Start with the summary of misalignments, gaps, and problems from the prior piece of work and make your best
judgments about the best ways to address these. This might be a very good time to feed in thought-provoking ideas from outside your organization and explore things others have done or thought about. What's worked well and what hasn't lived up to its promises? What future kinds of things are being thought about out there? We re-
member one client talking about needing "out of the box" thinking, and his colleague saying, "We've been out of the box for a long time because the box has moved and we're just sitting here!"

To get a good feeling for the impact of potential changes as you work your way around the circle, add in the implications for change in any of the other elements suggested by the change in the element you are focused on. For example, say you have identified a potential need for new technology in your core system or a major support system. What are the implications for the people? What about authority structure or reward systems? How might it drain from the requirements to maintain present technologies or place pressure on resources and capital allocated to other initiatives? How does it fit into the present business plans? How does it match up with trends in the environment?

There is a big change stewardship caution here. Keep this work substantive and meaningful, but keep it light. The reason that most of these things haven't been addressed before is not because they are slipping by without being noticed. It's more likely they are in the "overwhelming A" category because of magnitude or cost or spe-
cial interests, and people have been doing whatever it takes to work around them. A pile of overwhelming As on the chest can stop a body from breathing. So do whatever it takes to keep your Swiss cheese palatable and stay in touch with your senior sponsorship for their support during this task.

One other useful caution: Avoid getting trapped in extensive overanalysis here. It's a common way that organizations try to "out wait" the forces for change and miss the boat.