Change-what Lies Ahead?

"If anything is constant, it is change."

- Bryce's Laws

As I have written in the past, Americans are great reactionaries. There are numerous examples to illustrate the point including Pearl Harbor, 9/11, and Hurricane Katrina just to mention a few. But in all three of these examples, warnings were issued well in advance which were disregarded and written off as nothing but the rantings of alarmists. The advice of respected futurists is rarely heeded in spite of the supporting facts they present. Instead, they are regarded as entertaining oddities who are not to be taken seriously. Nonetheless, when predictions come to fruition it is usually too late and Americans have to react and pay dearly for doing so. In other words, Americans tend to live for the moment and rarely try to anticipate future events. Nonetheless, these events, whether we anticipate them or react to them, represent the catalysts for change affecting all of us.

Recently, I was asked to give a talk on "Why we resist Change" which was based on a paper I wrote some time ago. In addition to commenting on how change affects us, I was asked what I foresaw as those events or elements to affect change in the years ahead. To my way of thinking, there are three agents of change to pay attention to:

* IMMIGRATION - We are all aware of the problems we have with illegal aliens, particularly along our border with Mexico, but I don't believe the overall American populace truly appreciates the impact this will have on the country either financially or culturally. If our immigration policies are left unchecked, we will have to pay a hefty fee for the overhaul of our infrastructure. California alone is already feeling the impact on its schools, highways, and medical facilities. And the Golden State is just the tip of the iceberg. Starting with the southern states, the entire country will eventually feel the pinch of an immigration system that is essentially out of control. Culturally, according to the U.S. Bureau of the Census, by 2010, Hispanics will be the largest minority group, easily surpassing African-Americans. By 2050 it is projected Hispanics will represent approximately 25% of the population. Undoubtedly this will lead to an increase in Latino political influence, and a decline for other groups.

* TERRORISM - Most Americans think of terrorism as nothing more than the war in Iraq. But terrorism knows no boundaries and has been adopted as the military tactic du jour in the Middle East, Asia, Africa, and South America. Think about it; in terms of conventional warfare, there is no power on Earth that can compete with the United States. Consequently, our enemies resort to terrorism, which we are still learning to combat and forcing us to change militarily. This also means terrorism isn't dependent on religious fanaticism, but rather anything opposed to the policies of the United States such as democracy, freedom, and economics.

Domestically, 9/11 was our wake-up call making us cognizant of our vulnerability on our own home soil. Sure, we have inaugurated some changes through Homeland Security, but we are still vulnerable internally, including New York and Washington, DC.

All of this will affect us for many years to come and will cost us economically and socially. To illustrate, we are all aware of the burden of terrorism in terms of travel restrictions, but we will also see it in revised building and zoning requirements, changes in office security, importing and exporting, etc. In other words, our carefree world is a thing of the past and we will become more guarded in our actions.

As a personal opinion, I believe we will continue to be plagued by terrorism as long as America maintains a posture of military defense, and not offense, to combat it. I guess this is the price we pay as a superpower and being the latest reincarnation of Rome.

* TECHNOLOGY - Americans love gadgetry but I do not believe they understand the social ramifications resulting from it, particularly amongst our young people. For example, text messaging is leading to some rather bad habits in grammar and speech. In the classroom, it is also the predominant vehicle for cheating on tests. There is also a strong argument arising that Social Networks and videos on the Internet are leading to changes in our social mores. To illustrate, such vehicles are being blamed in the well publicized incident involving the battery of a 16 year old girl in Florida by eight other teenagers.

It is my theory that as the use of technology accelerates, social skills diminish. If this is true, we will see significant changes in the years ahead in terms of attitudes, values, and how we communicate. In other words, we are looking at significant cultural changes resulting from the use of technology in the years ahead, some good, some not so good.

CONCLUSION

It could be argued that the Media, which is driven by economics, and the Weather are two other agents of change which should not be overlooked. True, but Immigration, Terrorism, and Technology are the three most obvious agents staring us in the face yet we are exerting relatively little effort to deal with them effectively. If history has taught us anything, it is that we will do too little, too late, to address these problems and we will again be faced with a crisis on a significant scale. But then again, this is how Americans prefer to operate.

If you would like to discuss this with me further, please do not hesitate to send me an e-mail at timb001@phmainstreet.com

Keep the faith!