What if you work in a volatile environment? Shift from forecasting to thinking about "what if" changes happen.
Sometimes the winds of irresistible forces can blow in many and unpredictable directions, and the required actions can be quite diverse. Consider the pricing and demand for commodities like oil. How can you prepare for changing oil prices, even if you have all the values, alignment, clarity, and understanding that you think you need?
Royal Dutch Shell provides an example from the period of the Arab oil embargo in the 1970s. Just prior to that time, the company's planning department had been charged with developing a large number of scenarios about what could happen to the petroleum industry in the future. The purpose of this exercise was to provide the groundwork for the company to prepare its options well in advance, and then act quickly and decisively once an irresistible force showed its face and direction.
Shell realized that forecasting these actions may be seen as a waste of time, but the company was fairly sure that the future would lie somewhat in one or more of the directions developed in the scenarios. You guessed it. One of the scenarios called for an Arab oil embargo and an overnight spike in the price of petroleum.
When the embargo actually happened, Shell had already considered its plans, with consistency relative to its values, all the necessary alignment, and required clarity. The company more quickly implemented its plans than competitors did by tapping into new, lower-priced sources of supply not affected by OPEC, making products that would make the company a good profit at the newly-inflated prices, and focusing on markets where demand would be the least affected. The company saw its earnings rise while most competitors stumbled.
Arie de Geus, a Royal Dutch Shell executive from those days, points out an interesting characteristic of scenario planning that he learned from his years of experience with this process. Developing scenarios seems to help people and organizations become more comfortable with how to think about changed circumstances. Thus they are better able to see the new direction and deal with it in a positive way.
Does your organization know about the alternative scenarios that irresistible forces could bring to your environment?
Are you ready with plans for those scenarios?
If not, you may be missing a major opportunity to steal a march on your competitors while serving your customers better than they can.
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How to burn a game on to another disk
By: teresa | 30-08-2008
how to burn a game on to another disk
Drycleaners
By: guyrumplik | 28-08-2008
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The search for Bill and Doug Kirkland continues...
By: secrestltd | 26-08-2008
Are Bill and Doug Kirkland, the financial wizards of the seventies-eighties still in Prescott, AZ?
Teh search fr Bill and Doug Kirkland continues...
By: secrestltd | 26-08-2008
What happened to Bill and Doug? are they still in Prescott, AZ?
What is wrong with trivia game shows/board games?
By: matthew mclendon | 26-08-2008
Just need some expert input and opinions about trivia pursuit gameshows and board games. My belief is that they should be relevantly educational;profitable to build up the human mind. All these games, as entertaining and fun as they are, tend to be ambiguous and serve the purpose of just passing the time. Wouldn't it be more profitable if a trivia game had something for us to carry with us, to talk about and give us something to think about? I guess I am suggesting some sort of effective educational structure as some series of building blocks or maybe a web of related subjects/topics that have informative but life applicable use. If I wanted to launch a trivia pursuit game show where the main core issue is the real history of America based on historical documents as opposed to traditional teaching and text book materials, wouldn[t this be more effective in building up our intellect bank than what the already established trivia games provide? Suppose, in the proposed game show about America I came acrosse information that has been dileberately ommited,producing holes,and this info can fill the gaps, would you appreciate that? Just out of curiosity, how many of you feel the same way I do?
Looking for job
By: Jim blanchard | 26-08-2008
I am looking to relocate to the west coast region from r.I. And looking for a fleet managers job in the waste industry
Any help or suggestions ??
Jblanc1422@aol.Com
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