If Ukrainian Presidential Elections Were Held Next Week How Would You Vote?

It is a choice for the established political or a bid for a change to make Ukraine work. The poll indicate that established political front figures are ahead, but only with small margins to the underdog Arseniy Yaseniuk. Could he represent the peoples choice in 2010, that can bring the changes needed in Ukraine?

PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE POLL IN UKRAINE

This was the question asked to over 2000 people in Ukraine during a period of February and March 2009 by Razumkov Center.

This poll has been performed in Ukraine since February 2008 with the last poll results March 2009,

The numbers in the polls gives an indication whether there are some new trends in the peoples choice of leadership in Ukraine. It also gives an indication to what political characters they look for.

The March 2009 poll gave some very interesting results that could indicate that there is a change happening in Ukrainians thinking of leadership in Ukraine.

The most interesting trend is observed between March 2008 and March 2009, where Arseniy Yatseniuk the previous speaker of Verkhovna rada has gone from 0% of the votes to 13.4% of the votes.

There is a slight increase in people who would vote against all or have difficulty answering who they would vote for, from 24.6% to 27.7% in March 2009.

Arseniy Yatseniuk has had a comet race only the last few months, from December 2008 and up to March 2009, by a doubling of votes from 6.6% to 13.4% of the total votes.

At the moment it looks like there is 27.7% of the votes that could swing anywhere. This means if Arseniy Yatseniuk can come through with his change in Ukraine through citizen initiative, and how he plans to do it, and what would be the outcome of this. Then there is a fair chance that he can capture his fair portion of these uncertain votes and be close to, or even past the front runners at the moment, which is Yanukovych and Tymoshenko with 19.5% and 17.9% respectively.

The leading candidates only have 4.5 - 6.1% lead on Yatseniuk, so nothing is impossible. He only need 25% of the uncertain votes and some swingers from the other candidates, and he is home free to win the election. 

THE MOST PROMISING CANDIDATE FOR CHANGE IS YATSENIUK?

Yaseniuk has started a party called Change Front Citizens Initiative which could just be the right medicine for Ukraine which needs to make changes in vital parts of economical, political and social areas.

His experience in Rada combined with his ministerial experience could also be of needed to understand the need for changes in the parliamentary system in Ukraine as well.

He might also be bold enough to challenge the need for constitutional changes rising in Ukraine as the fight between the president and prime minister in Ukraine clearly visualize both domestic and international. 

NEED FOR A CHANGE?

Ukrainian politics has been dominated by conflicts on several levels, from top level to regional ones. Leadership should be an example to follow by others in society, both inside politics as well as outside the political sphere. However, in Ukraine the last 2 years have been dominated by inconsistent political signals and directions, as well as a leadership that has sent signals to its population that internal fights are more important than the future of Ukraine and its citizens.

This is not only limited to the fight between the president and the prime minister, but you can see these fights at local government levels in several oblasts in Ukraine.

Ukrainian people have been exposed to a variety of political leadership since its independence in 1991.  Therefore the Ukrainians are the one best to judge what is best for them, what works or not.

POLITICS AND MEDIA COVERAGE

However, there are some challenges when it comes to distribution of information and candidates campaign message to the people.

Most newspapers and TV and Radio stations are owned by a small group of people with a political view which will favor candidates of these, as well as smearing candidates not having their view. In addition the contributions from the political engaged oligarchs and millionaires in Ukraine direct political campaign media coverage and messages given to the people. 

DEMOCRACY. LEGISLATION AND MARKET ECONOMY

Ukraine has transformed into a market economy and democracy and whether these achievements can hold in a challenging world, especially in the headwind of the current financial crisis (Anders Aslund, 2009).

Minimum legislation has been promulgated, corruption remains pervasive, and the state administration is malfunctioning. The crucial problem appears to be the constitutional order, which provides the president with flawed incentives. The president can exercise power only through his veto and by calling for new elections, which he is thus tempted to do.

A rational solution would be to move to a fully parliamentary system. The key question is whether Ukraine's democracy can survive such dysfunction, rendering constitutional amelioration of paramount importance.

GLOBAL CRISIS

The global crisis is testing Ukraine's economy on several arenas at the moment. In particular, the steel industry is facing major structural challenges.

The current economic crisis will bring substantial needed changes in the economy as well as the economic system. It will eventually be transposed into the politics and the political system as well. 

INFORMATION TO THE PEOPLE

There is a need to enlighten the Ukrainian population of Ukraine's position and dilemma. The Ukrainians need to understand that the crisis has not only hit Ukraine, but is a global crisis. In order to make Ukraine survive and come out of it, there is need for a new leadership that has the vision to look the facts in the eyes and to promote some dramatic changes to assist Ukraine out of the crisis both on its own help, but also in cooperation with other countries, whichever ones found to suit Ukraine best in the long run. 

CHANGE IN THE POLITICAL POWERHOUSE OF UKRAINE

There seem to be a trend in Ukraine people opinion of the political powerhouse of Ukraine. There is a need for a change from the existing power structure to a new one.

There is a candidate that sails up as a candidate to be the new visionary leader in Ukraine - YATSENIUK. 

REFERENCES

Ukrainians Vote for a Change in 2010 - A Change in Leadership, Vision and Unity, Stig-Arne Kristoffersen 2009.
http://www.articlesbase.com/politics-articles/ukrainians-vote-for-a-change-in-2010-a-change-in-leadership-vision-and-unity-815981.html 

The Background Of Arseniy Yatsenyuk Who Could Be The Ukrainians Choice For Next Ukrainian President, Stig-Arne Kristoffersen 2009.
http://www.articlesbase.com/politics-articles/the-background-of-arseniy-yatsenyuk-who-could-be-the-ukrainians-choice-for-next-ukrainian-president-816019.html

How Ukraine Became a Market Economy and Democracy, By Anders Aslund 2009.