Iraq War Could Expand Into Iran by Election Day

The Democratic presidential primary will be over soon. Eventually, New York Senator, Hillary Clinton, will have to concede the Democratic party nomination fight to Barrack Obama. The polls in Pennsylvania continue to show a very slight lead for the former First Lady. However, in North Carolina public opinion polls indicate a huge lead for Barack Obama. If the polls are correct then it will probably be after the North Carolina primary that the campaign of Hillary Clinton accepts its now inevitable end.

The moment Hillary Clinton withdraws from the 2008 Presidential campaign, the Iraq war will begin to dominate the general election debate between John McCain and Barack Obama. A preview of what will become the defining issue of the 2008 Presidential election campaign could be seen this week in the Senate during the questioning of General David Petraeus by both candidates. Each candidate's questioning of General Petraeus highlighted the differences on the Iraq issue between the two men. McCain's questions were concerned with military tactics for success while Obama was clearly looking for a strategy for a complete military withdrawal.

The truth is that the outcome of the 2008 Presidential election depends on the events of the next six months in Iraq. In fact, for the last several years, election results have tracked the public's perceptions about the progress of the war. The Democratic success in the 2006 congressional elections correlated to a low point in the public’s opinion of the war. More recently, the resurgence of John McCain’s candidacy has followed an increased public optimism about the success of the troop surge and the decrease in U.S. fatalities in the country.

It has recently become evident that the situation in Iraq will not be resolved by the time that George W. Bush leaves office in January 2009. More than 140,000 United States troops will likely remain in the country when a new presidential administration takes office. As a result, it will be up to the next President to handle this increasingly costly war. It is clear that a McCain administration would continue the policy of the current Bush administration in Iraq. Under McCain, Iraq will not be given a timetable for U.S. withdrawal. However, Democratic candidate Barrack Obama favors a troop withdrawal timetable and what he calls a "diplomatic surge" to include Iran.

Obama favors a diplomatic surge with Iran because, according to General Petraeus, Iran is behind much of the current violence in Iraq. Last week, Petraeus told the Senate Armed Services Committee that Iran has "fueled the recent violence in a particularly damaging way through its lethal support of "special groups". These "special groups" are "funded, trained, armed, and directed by Iran's Quds Force with help from Lebanese Hezbollah. It was these groups that launched Iranian rockets and mortar rounds at Iraq's seat of government (the Green Zone) ... causing loss of innocent life and fear in the capital."

Also consider General Petraeus response to Senator Joseph Lieberman's question about the threat of Iran to American fighting men and women in Iraq. "Is it fair to say that the Iranian-backed special groups in Iraq are responsible for the murder of hundreds of American soldiers and thousands of Iraqi soldiers and civilians?" Liberman asked. "It certainly is. ... That is correct," said General Petraeus.

It is clear that the United States backed government of Iraq is fighting a proxy war with "special groups' backed by the government of Iran. An escalation of violence in Iraq during the next six months without any hope of immediate resolution would probably help the candidacy of Democrat Barack Obama.

However, the recent comments from General Petraeus may also be a prelude to a general escalation of a conflict between the United States and Iran, a conflict to be initiated before George W. Bush leaves office. The fact is that, in addition to contributing to the violence in Iraq, Iran continues to enrich uranium. The enrichment of uranium continues despite three United Nations Resolutions and Sanctions.

It is evident that the nations of the West (including Israel) will not accept a nuclear Iran and that the United Nations has not been effective in stopping the ongoing Iranian nuclear enrichment program. In addition, the United States cannot withdraw military forces from Iraq with the Iranian-sponsored violence in the country. As a result, the Iranian problem in Iraq could well act as a military cover for a United States bombing campaign designed to address not only the problem of the Iranian sponsored "special groups" but Iranian nuclear facilities as well.

It is a long way to the United States Presidential election in November. A lot can happen in the war in Iraq during the next seven months. However, as in the last several American elections, the status of the war in Iraq will play a major role in deciding the outcome. It probably would not help the candidacy of Republican John McCain if the recent violence in Iraq escalates or if the war expands into Iran by election day.