Numbers Lie – Statistics, Politics and the Media, Part 2

Last week we began looking at how numbers and statistics can be used by the spin jockeys who work in marketing and politics to mislead the public into believing what they wish us to believe. The spin jockeys decide what message they wish to convey and then find or create numbers to support their position.

The messages and statistics are then released to the media through press releases, advertising or delivered by a spokesperson, or in some cases they are delivered directly by company representatives or politicians. This is remarkably effective because the media will often use these “sound bites” of information without checking to find out if they are accurate – this is especially true of numbers and statistics. As news services continue to cut back on investigative journalism resources and staff this is becoming more and more common.

This is a very unfortunate phenomenon because the general public tends trust the media to be true and accurate. As soon as the numbers appear in the media they become more credible and are usually treated as facts. This makes it much easier for the spin jockeys to mislead us.

So far we have been talking about deliberate distortions created from the use of inaccurate or misleading numbers. There are just as many “honest” ways that numbers can lie.

In many cases people who report numbers have a bias in how they report them. Think about how your local meteorologist reports on the possibility of rain. If they forecast rain and it is sunny most people are not going to blame them. If they forecast sunny skies and it rains some folks are going to furious when it rains on their garage sale or party and blame the weatherperson. The forecasters are well aware of this and tend to “hedge their bets” by biasing their forecast in favor of precipitation over the possibility of sunny skies.

Beyond simple biases many distortions in the delivery and use of numbers are from mistakes. Anyone who has taken enough math knows that a small mistake made in calculation can lead to a completely inaccurate result. Mistakes can be made in the collection, tabulation or analysis of numbers as well - the more complex the numbers the more likely it is that inaccuracies exist.

The other common mistake is to misinterpret the numbers because of a misunderstanding of the relationships between things. In the early days of the AIDs epidemic many people concluded that homosexual behavior “caused” AIDs because infection was almost completely restricted to male homosexuals. It wasn’t until large numbers of women began contracting HIV that this hypothesis was invalidated.

It is beyond the scope of this essay to go into all the ways that numbers can lie. However, there is a great little book out there that does. Check out Innumeracy - Mathematical Illiteracy and its Consequences by John Allen Paulos. Dr. Paulos does a fine job of illuminating how numbers can lie and provides some solutions to the individual who wishes to cut through the BS.

Ultimately, the solution to this problem is within each one of us. There is no way we will ever be able to eliminate the distortion that can result from the improper use of numbers or from using inaccurate numbers. Numbers are used and produced by human beings and human beings are notoriously fallible. It then becomes our responsibility to be skeptical and check out numbers that are important to us.

Whenever possible investigate numbers and the conclusions reached from them by doing a little research. Here the Internet search engines are a great resource. Just type in the issue and the numbers and you are likely to get other analyses of those same numbers. Use the alternative news services – there are many available on the web – and get another point-of-view before accepting suspicious numbers as fact. Be aware of the biases that exist and take into consideration that distortion when reviewing the numbers.

Perhaps the most powerful thing you can do is to hold companies and politicians accountable for their misuse of numbers. If you find that a company has been distorting the truth than stop giving them your business. If consumers did not allow them to get away with it companies would be forced to become more truthful to stay in business. Similarly, don’t vote for politicians who bend facts to support their campaigns, and if you still wish to vote for them it never hurts to give them a call or email letting them know that their numbers are inaccurate and that your continued support depends on them issuing a correction.

While we may not be able to eliminate distortions that result from mistakes we can reduce deliberate distortions by holding the spin jockeys accountable. On the Bright Future website there is a nice article on reducing distortion by insisting on good record keeping entitled: Credibility and Solid Record Keeping Expose Propaganda