Today’s Middle East diplomatic negotiations are reminiscent of the typical Good Cop / Bad Cop scenes from television police drama. Unfortunately the creators of those scripts are the very audience that is being deceived by them today.
Traditionally, in these pivotal scenes the two cops work together to acheive the same goal, each using opposite approaches: the goal being the ultimate breakdown of the suspect. The suspect, fearing attack from the bad cop, is appeased by the promises offerred by the good cop. In the end, despite their initial arguments over tactics, the policemen congratulate themselves over a job well done.
Going back to what seems like ancient history, The Oslo Accords could be considered the comeback of the 70s cop series. Way back then, original Bad Cop turned sheriff Arafat came out of exile to the table offering coffee and baclawa to anyone seeking appeasement. Luckily for him, Israel, tired of decades of terror, told him he could have his cake and eat it, too. With the New Middle East built on a secret handshake and a White House signing, the vacant post for Bad Cop was ready to be filled.
Enter Hamas/Islamic Jihad/Islamic Brotherhood/PFLP: AKA terrorists. As opposed to Arafat’s Fatah, (formerly known as the world’s number one terror organisation, now honorably labelled a Peace Partner), these “new” terrorist outlaws were the target of the world’s indignation. Those nasty Islamists that got in the way when everyone was trying to negotiate final status agreements. Suddenly, Arafat was the Good Cop, telling the world that he was the only one that could keep the Bad Cop away. As the Oslo pattern went, the deadlier the terror, the more urgent the negotiations with Arafat, the greater the Israeli concessions.
Make no mistake about who is playing whom today. The West is the Suspect. The Arabs are the Cops. Israel is, unfortunately, the victim. Good Cop / Bad Cop in today’s politics stands for Diplomacy vs Terror. In today’s prime time television, we witness the latest team at work simultaneously, trying to get out of diplomacy or terror whatever they can.
Once again, on the Palestinian track, we have the government crisis in the form of Abbas vs. Hamas. As clear a presentation as you can get, of diplomacy vs. terror. This approach is logical, due to its past resounding success. It is patently obvious that the driving force of the current round of negotiations and plans is the world’s fear of Hamas, and global islamic terror in general. The lunacy of the recent meetings between Abbas and Olmert, with Abbas making promises whilst in parallel Hamas issued vehement denials, is obvious. What is less obvious, and more ominous, is why the rest of the world insists that there is potential in such lunacy.
Hamas has stated very clearly that they do not recognise Israel’s right to exist. On top of that they reinforce their intentions to fight that existance by violent means, through words and daily action. Hamas, a terror organisation, was popularly voted into government by the people. There is no clearer indication that for now, the Palestinians are not interested in peace, let alone worthy of independance. So why, with such clear messages, does the world insist on pursuing, rather than ostracizing, such a government and it’s voters? Enter Abbas, the good cop, making promises that the usual suspects want to believe. Fearing terror, the world turns to the “moderates”. In fact all negotiations lead down the same path.
From Assad vs. Mubarak, to Abdullah vs Ahmadenijad, it’s time that the world wakes up and understands that at the end of the episode, despite their apparent differences, we discover that the cops were working together towards a common goal. That goal is at best, the serious weakening of Israel, and at worst, Israel’s annihalation. What Hollywood, at least, understood, is that once the pattern became too predictable, they started writing original scripts.
The Road Map and the Arab Peace Initiative are already dangerously predictable in their outcomes. Red-herrings such as “moderates” and “peace partner” are merely euphemisms for Good Cop.
What the Middle East needs is a new script.