© Gurumurthy Kalyanaram (2007)
Gurumurthy Kalyanaram is a management consultant and a professor. He can be reached at gurumurthy.kalyanaram@gmail.com.
The probability of Obama winning the Presidential elections in November appears to be pretty robust. Here is why --
(1) Based on public polls, it is becoming evident that Obama is most likely to hold all the states (Michigan appears close but it is trending Obama's way) that Kerry won in 2004. That would give Obama 252 electoral votes. Add to this Iowa which is almost certain to go to Obama -- 7 electoral votes. That gives Obama 259 electoral votes.
On the other hand, McCain -- at this stage -- is not likely to win all the stages that Bush won in 2004 (284 electoral votes.) McCain is almost sure to lose Iowa (7 electoral votes.) Add to this mix, Ohio (20 electoral votes), Virginia (13 electoral votes), Colorado (9 electoral votes), and New Mexico and Nevada (each with 5 electoral votes) -- there is substantial doubt if McCain can hold these states. That puts McCain at about 225 electoral votes.
(2) The more compelling arithmetic is this. Repeatedly, in large numbers of public polls about 37-38 percent of the likely voters identify themselves as Democrats and about 30 percent as republicans. That leaves about 30 percent as independents. (The Newsweek preference measure which shows that about 55 percent of the voters identify themselves as Democrats and 36 percent as Republicans is an outlier.)
Assuming both Obama and McCain get 80 percent of their party votes, the differential gain for Obama would be about 6.5 percent. In the cross-over vote of 20 percent, Obama would lose about 1.5 percent leaving a net lead of about 5 percent for Obama. Assuming that Obama and McCain split the independents, Obama's overall lead would be about 5 percent.
The only caveat is the potential Bradley-Wilder effect which accounts for about 5-7 percent.
(3) What adds to the odds of Obama's victory are three other elements: the enormous enthusiasm among democrats and much muted demeanor of the republicans (enthusiasm translates into higher voting percentage and greater voter mobilization, in some cases the enthusiasm gap between the democrats and republicans is as high as 30 points), the extra-ordinarily low approval ratings (in low 30s) of President Bush and the perception that the country is heading in the wrong direction (over 64-70 percent of Americans say this.)
- Related Videos
- Related Articles
- Ask / Related Q&A
- U.s. in Store for Trillion-dollar Deficits, Says President-elect Barack Obama
- Will Barack Obama Change the Face of the US Green Economy?
- If Barack Obama Wins, I'm Buying Stocks
- Barack Obama & Hillary Clinton ?!!
- What Will Barack Obama Do About Online Casinos?
- Seven Reasons I'm Voting for Barack Obama for President
- Barack Obama Reminds Us Its a Time for Miracles
- Barack Obama & Hillary Clinton
Sources: Obama, Dems to sidestep GOP on health care
By: alabi ayodeji | 07/01/2010The full House of Representatives is not scheduled to return from vacation until January 12; the Senate meets January 19. But top representatives and senators, as well as their aides, have already been discussing the issue.
US new strategy not based on ground realities
By: Farman Nawaz | 07/01/2010Recently America has announced that there is need of negotiations with those Taliban which do not want to live under the yoke of Al-Qaeda. Now the questions arise “are there different groups in Taliban, like good and bad Taliban?” And who is supporting those so called good Taliban? If these good Taliban can survive on their own and face Al-Qaeda and Bad Taliban so why America is not able to defeat those bad Taliban? And what is the difference in the policies of these two kinds of Taliban?
How to avoid racial attacks in Australia?
By: C Vishy | 07/01/2010Racial attacks in Australia have often been given a wrong intonation. This article looks at how Indians can avoid these racial attacks.
The hunt for Bin Laden continues
By: sanajai | 07/01/2010I am not a big news fan to be honest I watch it mainly for the weather. To me it just seems every
Should Gordon Brown have used the 'C' Word?
By: Phil Marks | 06/01/2010The high UK tax burden (more than 40% and growing) has been brought into sharp focus in the last few of months in the UK, but is really in the spotlight now as the General Election campaign gets underway, January week 1, 2010. The main UK election battle ground between the political parties is the massive mountain of debt facing Great Britain and how it is to be reduced. Gordon Brown has avoided using the word 'Cuts' - could it have cost him the Labour Party Leadership?
How many times the Sword is mentioned in Bible and Quran?
By: Prof.dr. Ibrahim Khalil | 06/01/2010It is interesting that the sword is mentioned more than 400 times in the Bible (a year is 365 days!). On the other hand, the sword is never ever mentioned in the entire Quran.
After 1 Year, Obama vs. Reagan
By: Rex Camposagrado | 06/01/2010How is President Barack Obama doing as we approached the end of his first year in office? Obama clearly inherited a difficult situation economically and only Reagan's time in office in the modern era came even remotely close.
Drudge & C-Span
By: Ernie Fitzpatrick | 06/01/2010Oh how the past can come back to haunt us, especially when we repeatedly say something over and over and then don't do as we have said.
The tragedy in Sri Lanka: Tamils, LTTE, Ealem, and Indian and Sri Lankan Governments and People
By: Gurumurthy Kalyanaram | 21/04/2009 | PoliticsA Greek tragedy of monumental proportions is unfolding in Sri Lanka. For ever, generations of Sri Lankans and Indians, and humanity in general, will be scarred from this tragedy. As in any Greek tragedy, it is impossible to identify a winner nor is it possible to identify one cause or culprit.
India and The Parliamentary Elections: First Forecast (April 15th)
By: Gurumurthy Kalyanaram | 21/04/2009 | PoliticsGiven the numbers and the positioning of various political parties, the odds of a BJP led government appear to be slight higher. But whoever forms the government, the coalition is likely to be too compromised and fragile to sustain itself in office for more than a few years.
Indian Parliamentary Elections, 2009 (A Forecast): Congress Party or Bharatiya Janata Party?
By: Gurumurthy Kalyanaram | 15/04/2009 | PoliticsThe Indian parliamentary elections are here. There are 542 parliamentary seats. So support of at least 272 parliamentarians would constitute majority support and a mandate to govern. Given the numbers and the positioning of various political parties, the odds of a Bharatiya Janata Party led government appear to be slight higher. But whoever forms the government, the coalition is likely to be too compromised and fragile to sustain itself in office for more than a few years.
Has There Been a Slippage in Barack Obama's Support in the Month of July?
By: Gurumurthy Kalyanaram | 19/07/2008 | PoliticsThere has been speculation -- reasonable and based on some empirics -- that Barack Obama may have slipped some in the match-up against John McCain in the presidential preference measurement. This slippage appears to have occurred since about July 4th weekend. For example, the fivethirtyeight.com model shows some downturn, and Michael Barone also appears to think so. The tracking polls by Rasmussen and Gall Up show the race to be with in 1-2 points.
Three Policy Elements of the India-us Nuclear and the 123 Agreements
By: Gurumurthy Kalyanaram | 19/07/2008 | PoliticsAs India debates and will vote for the India-US Nuclear agreement through its members of parliament (it is a proxy vote in that the members of parliament will be voting whether the parliament trusts the current government or not), and as individual members of parliament are being tugged in different directions including their own conscience, there are three policy questions they should consider.
India's Troubled Economy
By: Gurumurthy Kalyanaram | 08/07/2008 | EconomicsAs the Indian government's energies are absorbed in the debate over India-US Nuclear agreement (123 agreement), the country's economy is showing serious strains. India's economy is now faced with trio challenges -- rising oil prices, worrisome inflation, and depreciation of Indian rupee.
The Winners and Losers in the Indian Debate of the India-us Nuclear Agreement
By: Gurumurthy Kalyanaram | 06/07/2008 | PoliticsThere is ferocious finger-pointing and heated rhetoric in the Indian debate. Without considering the substance or merit of the agreement, I rate as follows the winners and losers of this debate. I rate on a 1-10 scale, 1 being a perfect loser, 10 being a perfect winner and 5 being no-loss and no-gain.
The Probability of Victory is Higher for Senator Obama Than for Senator Mccain
By: Gurumurthy Kalyanaram | 24/06/2008 | PoliticsThe probability of Obama winning the Presidential elections in November appears to be pretty robust.