Arizona’s Real Estate Market ‘08

Arizona’s economic outlook has received mixed reviews by leading economists. The consensus is that Arizona will likely experience decelerated growth throughout the first half of the year, with in all likelihood the economy will show signs of improvement towards the end of the year.

A positive close to 2008, will depend on the strength of Arizona’s housing market leading into the final quarter of the year. An important factor for judging the overall strength of the economy, in 2008, will rely heavily on the housing industry not experiencing any drastic changes or unforeseeable obstacles.

Marshall Vest, Economic and Business Research director for the University of Arizona stated, “It will be a number of months before economists can say for sure that Arizona’s economy is contracting, but recent trends in the data that we do have are ominous.”

There are many indicators which have Vest and many other economists concerned for Arizona’s start to 2008, which includes: employment and the introduction of the employer-sanctions law; automotive sales and retail sales in general; new home sales and inventories, resale home prices, and building permits; and employment growth in health, manufacturing, and mining sectors.

There is good news! Mainly the economic diversity and export-oriented industries, in Arizona, which are expected to experience continued growth. Arizona, in regards to taxation, is a very appealing state for entrepreneurs; so we can expect a continued influx of new businesses, including residents, and tourists.

What does this mean for Arizona’s real estate market?

Georganna Meyer, Chief economist for the Arizona Department of Revenue said, “I expect the real estate market and contracting to continue to have reduced activity in 2008, but recovery should begin in 2009. As a result, I expect state tax revenues will grow only slightly in 2008, if at all. Whether we're in a recession or not, the results will be the same.”

In general, the declining number of construction permits will reduce builders’ inventories, helping to stabilize Arizona’s housing market and returning it to pre-boom growth patterns. Home values will also show a decline to start the year off, due to foreclosure and restrictive lending practices, which will make Arizona more appealing to new residents. The local job market and entrepreneurial appeal will likely contribute to Arizona’s predicted rebound late 2008.

Information Source:
Beard, B. (2007). The Arizona Republic, Arizona’s economic challenge for 2008.