Mortgage Rates in the Near Future: Rise or Fall

There are many factors that determine whether mortgage rates will rise or fall. It is impossible to get a definite answer on whether they will go up or down, but by understanding why rates fluctuate, you can get a feel for the direction they are moving.

There are a number of factors that determine mortgage rates. Money from mortgages comes from investors. These investors choose to invest in mortgage securities for safety and return on their money. If the mortgage market seems volatile, which it has lately, it can scare investors away. Another reason that people may choose an investment other than mortgage securities is because of the amount of return they receive on their investment. When people choose to invest in other products, it can reduce the amount of money available for mortgages, driving the rates higher.

On the other hand, if rates on other investment products are low, mortgage backed securities are an attractive choice. US Treasuries are an attractive investment choice for many of the people that may normally invest in mortgage backed securities, but the interest rates on them can drop so low that they are not worth the investors having their money tied up in them.

While investors are an important part of the mortgage rate equation, they are not the only part. If the housing market is booming and home sales are brisk, the demand for mortgage money increases, and rates will begin to creep up. If the housing market is in a slump, and there is little demand for the available mortgage money, interest rates will inch down.

Mortgage rates change, often on a daily basis, but they typically follow a larger trend. Currently, in July of 2009, they are inching up, but still remain competitively low. Why are they on their way up now? There are several reasons. America may be climbing out of the recession, or at least the area of the recession that saw many people losing their jobs. When job losses are imminent, not too many people are considering buying a home.

Another reason that the demand for loans is increasing is because of people refinancing. Refinancing is a great way to lower your monthly payment or shorten the term of your loan. When housing prices bottomed out, many people who may have been interested in refinancing their homes were not able to. When refinancing, your home must go through an appraisal, just like with an initial home purchase. Many people found that their homes were not worth what they owed on them, and, consequently, refinancing was not an option. As the housing market picks back up, homeowners are now able to take advantage of lower mortgage rates to refinance their homes.

Looking to purchase?

If you are considering buying a home, what information is pertinent to your specific situation? How will future projections about interest rates impact your decision making process? While they are currently inching up, that is no reason to be scared of a purchase or refinance; in fact, the sooner the better. While it is always possible that rates will go to their spring 2009 rates again, it is important to realize that those were historic lows.

Mortgage rates are still considered low. Someone waiting around for them to return to the levels they were a few months ago may find themselves missing out on their opportunity to lock in low rates. While everyone wants to take advantage of the lowest rate available, it is important to realize that predicating the fluctuations in the market is impossible.

If you are truly afraid to lock in a mortgage rate at today's levels, talk to your lender. Many will offer a window of time that allows you to take advantage of a lower rate if they drop. Also ask about the cost of refinancing. Many lenders offer special deals on refinancing that stays in-house (with the same lender). This can help ease your mind that you are not stuck with a higher rate if they drop soon after you close your loan. Staying with the same lender may allow you to refinance without paying additional costs on the loan.

At some point, you will have to commit to a certain interest rate. The difference of a few percentage points will not make a huge difference over the life of the loan, but many people attach too much significance to acquiring the lowest possible mortgage rate. Remember, even with a 30 year mortgage, you are not stuck. If interest rates fall, you can always refinance.