Understanding Hawaii Real Estate Statistics !

Many of my clients whom I worked with in Oahu real estate or visited the web site www.ihomeshawaii.com get overwhelmed with all the real estate statistics they are bombarded with. Some from newspapers, some from agents, some from brokerages, some from the boards, some from friends and family....and more other sources...where do you go, how do you untangle the numbers, what do they mean to your property...!!!

Here are some points to consider as you are reading statistics..!

1- Who supplied you with the statistics - believe it or not statistics are the easiest form of mathematical numbers that can be tweaked to lean one way or another. Be safe and read statistics only from the Board of realtors - not news paper, not brokerages...etc

2- Be aware of the terms used - newspaper are notorious of saying for example "Real Estate sales are down 30%" - which could be true, however "sales" usually means number of properties sold "not" prices. Hence most of readers think the prices are crashing when they are not. There are many cases when prices are stable or going up or slightly down and number of sales are significantly down. Don't panic and sell your house - ask the question and make sure you read between the line and under the headlines of newspapers.

3- If you got information about some price statistics (or number of sales) and has some comparisons. You will need to make sure it is comparing to same month of different years (usually using current month and year) - Why- Because real estate market is seasonal; hence when comparing you need to make sure the comparisons are correctly referenced. As an example you can’t compare Feb 2005 with July 2006, the correct way is to compare July 2005 with July 2006- this is called month-to- month comparisons. Anther questions rises – How about what happened already between Jan 2006 and July 2006, can this be compared to Jan2005 and July 2005 – the answer is Yes – this what is called Year-to-date comparisons. Year-to-date comparisons give you a good sense of the market trend for that specific period, these kind of comparisons are very good indication how the market is doing only in a coherent trend market not a transitional market (up or down like 2006). In a transitional market month-to-month and year-to-date comparisons ends up to be whacked out – what is the solution – well, you need now to see what the trend is and compare the last few months in the same year – Ouch- what happened to the seasonal comparisons you told us about Fadi- well correct you can still do year-to-date or month-to-month comparisons however it is not enough you need to know where the market is going and what it is doing in the transitional market, hence understands the trend and keep in mind the seasonal effect, AND check point 4.

4- Beware of all island statistics, I strongly believe it is only a guide line what the over all market and economy is doing. But will never tell you what you should list your house for and what you will offer for a house – WHY – well the answer is simple and in tow folds. First fold in a normal market (balanced like these days 2007, not 2006, 2005, 2004..you knowJ) appreciation and depreciation, neighborhoods, constructions, beaches, views, locations, new laws…etc all these don’t apply to all neighborhoods…The second fold gets more complicated, it is whe market is in a steep dive(Early 90’s - price or number of sales), Rocketing upward (2001-2005), or in transition (2006) in these markets all island statistics is worse, because it is usually a pocket market is taking place, what applies to Kailua, doesn’t apply to Makiki, not to Makaha, not to Kaneohe (next door to Kailua), not pearl city – why – because in transition or upward and down spiral markets each neighborhoods will be in different stage and either appreciating more or depreciating more than the others and might have way more inventory or way less inventory…etc – What to do – look at neighborhood statistics and compare the same neighborhood to its self. BEST –cut to the chase- solution is to do a IMMEADIATE localized comparison analysis to your property with full statistics – not many folks can do that – call me or email me I can do that for you – there is a reason why my listings sell – and my buyers end up buying – don’t you just love my Advertisement here ..:-)

5- Where do I go for statistics to give me an idea where the real estate market is going: BOARD OF REALTORS, in this case it is Honolulu board of realtors. Where do I go to get statistics and comparisons for my immediate localized property/neighborhood – well just call me 808-428-3659 or email me fadihawaii@aol.com. Why use Honolulu board of realtors, or board of realtors for that matter – well – they are the unbiased and neutral resource you will ever get. Why use Fadi for the localized comparisons, because no matter how accurate all island statistics are it will never be able to tell you the dynamics around your property that will decide the price for your house, you need someone like Fadi to do the statistics and comparison analysis. Also all island – board of realtor statistics - will never be able to know if there is a brand new school coming up, Golf course, new laws, military spending, and more in specific area that will make the neighborhood more attractive or less attractive.

6- MSIR rule – If you want to forget all about statistics then at least watch what the following statistical parameters are doing : A- Median sale prices. B-Number of Sales. C-Interest Rates. If you master these for your own neighborhood and state interest rates, you will have a good idea what market is doing for your property. NOW wait a minute Fadi- how about other criteria’s and parameters that decides the market….like inventory….days on market(DOM)….—Well—Yes these are also important but all of those are side effects and are embedded in the MSIR rule. Think about it, and if not convinced call me 808-428-3659 or email me fadihawaii@aol.com or visit www.ihomeshawaii.com

7- Which one should I follow average numbers or median number. PLEASE don’t look at average numbers. ALWAYS watch and look for Median numbers. Average numbers are always whacked-yes just like in Sopranos- Why are they whacked? - Well because if there are 10 properties sold for $500,000 and one property sold for $4 Million. Then watch the average…Oh man it is around $818,000...well is this correct representation of the 10 houses sold for $500,000? Does this mean the next $500,000 house should list their house for $818,000 – NO – you can see how one property with completely different value threw off the real value of this neighborhood. Ok what is in Median value for this example is $500,000 (wow what a surprise.:-)) it is a good representation of this neighborhood. If you don’t know how to get the median call me 808-428-3659 I can walk you through it.