Betting Trends : Opening Fixtures of the English Premiership 2009/10

A look into the opening day fixtures in the English Premier League 2009/10 season and the betting trends from the opening games of the past ten seasons with an overall prediction across several markets.

Burnley, Stoke, Hull and Wolves have been omitted from the trend analysis due to the small number of seasons they have participated in the EPL.

15th AUGUST 2009

Aston Villa v Wigan

80% of Aston Villa's opening matches over the past five seasons have had an even number of goals scored.

Aston Villa have won only 30% of their opening matches.

Wigan have been in the EPL for the past four seasons and have a 100% losing record for opening matches with 75% of those games ending in a 2-1 scoreline.

PREDICTION : This one's hard to call. Expect Villa to nick it but a home win bet won't have value. A 2-1 result to Villa might be worth a punt.

Blackburn v Man City

75% of Blackburn's games have resulted in three goals or more being scored.

Man City have lost 50% of their opening matches.

PREDICTION : Over 2.5 goals

Bolton v Sunderland

88% of Bolton's matches have ended up with three goals or more being scored with an average of 4.12 goals per game.

Bolton's last four opening fixtures have all produced an even number of goals.

Sunderland's opening fixture makes surprising reading as their win/loss ratio is exactly the same. They also have a trend of scoring two goals or less in their opening fixture 71% of the time.

PREDICTION : Bolton's opener seems to provide a glutton of goals so Over 2.5 goals would be the best bet.

Chelsea v Hull City

Chelsea have won 90% of their opening matches and have not lost any.

70% of Chelsea's opening matches have had three goals or more.

86% of Chelsea's opening matches in the last seven seasons have had an odd number of goals scored.

Chelsea have won their last seven opening matches.

PREDICTION : Chelsea are great off the block and their matches produce goals. Dutching a 3-0, 3-1 and 2-0 scoreline in Chelsea's favour could prove fruitful.

Everton v Arsenal

70% of Everton's opening fixtures have resulted in three goals or more being scored. 50% of these matches have been lost.

Everton's last three opening fixtures have produced three goals or more and the total number of goals have all been an odd number.

Arsenal have won 80% of their opening fixtures and haven't lost since 2000.

PREDICTION : Draw

Portsmouth v Fulham

67% of Portsmouth's opening games have ended with three goals or more being scored.

Fulham have lost their last 3 on the opening day.

The majority (75%) of these fixtures ended with three goals or more.

PREDICTION : Over 2.5 goals

Wolves v West Ham

West Ham have never drawn a game on opening day in the past ten seasons and 75% of their matches have ended up with three goals or more.

PREDICTION : Over 2.5 goals

16th AUGUST 2009

Man Utd v Birmingham

Man Utd haven't won an opening fixture since 2006 but have only lost once since 1999.

70% of Man Utd's opening fixtures have ended with an even number of goals and with a total of two or less.

80% of Birmingham's games ended with two goals or less.

PREDICTION : Scoreline of 2-0 to Man Utd

Tottenham v Liverpool

Tottenham have lost their last three opening matches.

70% of Tottenham's opening matches have resulted in two goals or less.

Liverpool have lost only one opening match since 1999 and that was in 2003.

Liverpool & Tottenham have both drawn 30% of their opening games from the past ten years.

PREDICTION : Draw