John is a huge MMA fan and has been following MMA since the UFC's inception in 1993. Check out: Real MMA or Ultimate Fighter Forums.
Sometime early in 2007, perhaps in February, George Rush St Pierre will put his UFC welterweight title on the line against Matt The Terror Serra. This fight is the title shot promised to the winner of the Ultimate Fighter season 4. Matt Serra won this in his finale victory over Chris Lytle. Matt won this fight on the judges scorecards, but I think most who saw the fight would have called it a draw. I won't take anything away from Matt Serra though, he's lost his share of close decisions, including one to former welterweight champion BJ Penn, a fighter who gave both Matt Hughes and George St Pierre some trouble in their respective bouts.
Of course, I can't talk about this fight without mentioning George St Pierre's spectacular victory over Matt Hughes at UFC 65. The French Canadian, St Pierre, completely dominated Hughes in the stand up and stuffed the former champions only real take down attempt. Not only that, when they did go to the ground, it was St Pierre on top, landing elbows and punches. It was almost reminiscent of St. Pierre's dominant win over Frank Trigg at UFC 54 in August of 2005. George St Pierre won that fight by rear naked choke. In the fight with Hughes St Pierre ended up winning by knockout, with a left high kick which Hughes says he didn't even see coming.
Before I get to the predictions, lets outline the strengths and weaknesses of each fighter.
George St Pierre - Strengths
Brilliant Stand up skills, kicks and punches, uses distance and height well
Extremely strong for a 170 pound fighter as was displayed against Matt Hughes, generally considered the strongest 170 pounder out there.
Good ground game, very dangerous on from the top, passes guard easily and well versed in submissions.
Good take down defense. Matt Hughes couldn't take him down!
George St Pierre - Weaknesses
The only weakness I can find in his game is that he got caught in an arm bar by Matt Hughes two years ago.
Matt Serra - Strengths
Excellent ground game, BJJ expert.
Strong. He may very well be as strong as GSP.
Improved striking. Not on par with GSP, but quick.
Matt Serra - Weaknesses
Size. By this I mean height, sorry Matt. This I believe will be the deciding factor as George St Pierre has a decisive reach advantage and GSP knows how to use it.
Finishing submissions. While Matt is a brilliant BJJ specialist, he seems to have problems finishing his submissions against top players.
Prediction
It's pretty easy to see by the tone of my article that I think George St Pierre will win this fight. I believe he will win it and win it easily. I wish I could say differently as I'm a huge fan of Matt Serra, but I just think George St Pierre has too much firepower. My prediction, George St Pierre by TKO, I won't give a round because of my respect for Matt Serra's abilities.
What's next
If George St Pierre defeats Matt Serra, there will be a rematch with Matt Hughes. Zuffa has hinted that this fight will be in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. This is something that Canadian UFC fans have been wanting for a long time. For me, it doesn't matter if it's in Quebec, or Buffalo, as long as it's close enough to where I live (Ontario) for me to drive. I went to one UFC fight in 2004 in Vegas, by the time it was done, it was a $4000 adventure (but well worth it). I'd love to just pay for the tickets, a room and some gasoline.
If Matt Serra wins this fight, he will find himself in a fight with Matt Hughes. This one will be interesting as Serra didn't have many (or is it any?) nice words for Matt Hughes during the filming of the Ultimate Fighter season 4. I'd personally like to see this fight some time in the future, no matter who's sitting on top of the welterweight decision. I'm sure Dana White has it in his bag of big money fights no matter what else happens in the division.
Take it easy and keep watching the fights.
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