Horse Racing - Understanding Pace

Pace handicapping is about understanding the energy dynamics of a race and developing a successful predictive strategy. Knowing when and how a horse is likely to use his energy can tell you remarkable things about a horserace before the horses ever leave the gate.

Horses have a preferred method of running, and left to their own devices, will usually run in the style that is comfortable for them. Knowing how each horse in a race is likely to behave will give you valuable information about the nature of the race, which horses are at an advantage, and what the likely outcome will be.

Three Horse Types

Although some handicappers use more, horses are generally separated into three major pace types: the frontrunner, mid-pack runner, and later runner. Depending on the mix of pace types in a race, either initial speed or energy conservation will prove to be the winning approach. Determining which will be more important and which horse is up to the challenge is the goal of pace analysis.

Front Runner

Early pace horses want to run at the head of the pack. Their competitive nature is so prominent that if they are not able to run on the lead, they will usually fall out of contention completely. The more frontrunners in the race, the faster the early pace will be. This places early pace horses at the risk of exhausting themselves before the final stages of the race, giving the mid-pack and late horses an opportunity to take advantage of their reserves of energy to pass them.

Mid-Pack Horses

Mid-pack horses like to stay behind the leaders, but not too far back. As the lead horses begin to tire, mid-pack horses have good position and reserves of energy that they can use to gain and sustain the lead. In fast paced races, mid-pack horses in good condition are always a threat to the frontrunners.

A problem with the mid-pack horse is that, being close to the lead, he is still vulnerable to over extending himself and falling prey to the same problems as the frontrunners. Although this happens less often than with frontrunners, it´s still a consideration in fast paced races.

Late Runners

Later runners are the horses that bring up the rear. They are usually in the bottom third of the pack. They are a poor bet in races where a speed duel is unlikely. The major problem with this running type is that in most races they are too far back when they finally make their move. They are also logistically disadvantaged, having to come to the front through ranks of other horses, or worse, on the outside.

The one scenario in which late running horses shine is when there is a very fast early pace. When a race results in a pace war with such a brutally fast pace that even the mid-pack horses are compromised, or there are no quality mid-pack runners, the late runners are likely candidates for the win. When this happens, the payouts are usually huge.

Pace handicapping can be an important part of a winning strategy if you take the time to evaluate the race as a whole. Multiple early pace horses set the stage for fast paced races. The faster the pace, the more likely an upset will occur, allowing a horse running off the lead to gain the advantage. Predictive race analysis can tell you what racing style to look for in your candidate, and what the potential pitfalls are.