The Future of Voice Technology

| Posted: 31-01-2007 | Comments: 0 | Views: 220 | Rating: (53)

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Mobile operations of telcos are progressively overtaking fixed line operations. This is largely due to fixed-line operators not having introduced significant new products, services or cost-saving technologies in the same way that mobile operators have. However, despite retaining their role as cash cows for incumbent operators, fixed and mobile voice services are progressively being overtaken by broadband. Increasingly, operators will need to take a holistic view of the market, necessitating a total review of their business models.
While high growth rates have been maintained globally until the present time, there is a massive shift taking place away from growth in developed markets to growth in the new emerging markets such as India, China, Africa and Latin America. By 2005, global growth stood at around 20%. Based on 2 billion subscribers, this is a massive development, and growth could lead to 5 billion subscribers over the next 15 to 25 years.
As more participants enter the mobile market, competition is increasing, with a subsequent decrease in prices and increase in services offered. To maintain the high growth of the mobile market, and counter falling prices, mobile carriers have started to offer services previously the domain of the fixed operators, and the fixed operators have had to respond.
In developed markets, mobile call charges are falling by 15%-20% per annum. While several countries in this market still see high growth in new mobile subscribers, they also see their overall revenue flattening because of the drop in call charges, as well as the fact that new subscribers are, in general, low-usage customers. As would be expected, markets with strong competition have seen a considerable drop in mobile call charges in developed markets through significant price competition around capped price plans. The others have retained declining but relatively high ARPUs. Since 2002, the low priced countries in this market have seen a levelling out of the mobile charges as they approach fixed call charges. These countries are stimulating further growth by developing mobile value added services.
In the new emerging markets, services are available for as low as $5 a month and call charges as low as 1 cent or even less per minute, with handsets available for $30 and 2nd hand ones even lower. It is easy to understand why the emerging market is seeing a mobile explosion.
Prepaid mobile services have rapidly increased their share of the total mobile market and are virtually the only option in emerging markets.
The future of MVNO remains uncertain, they are providers of mobile services independently from the operator that is supplying the network. With more competition and new services, operators will have to consider better MVNO deals in order to grow the market.
lack of success of new 3G services, that followed the already slow uptake of dedicated mobile data systems that were developed in the 1990s, is a clear indication that interest in traditional mobile data is still limited. WAP, GPRS, MMS, 1X and other developments over the past few years certainly have not changed the situation. Current mobile technologies are not well suited for economically viable business models for mobile data. WiMAX might challenge mobile data towards the end of the decade, but the mobile industry is trying to fight back with HSDPA (High Speed Downlink Packet Access).
The lack of suitable infrastructure has hampered the growth of mobile data. As with voice applications, the emerging nextgen (NGN) platforms are going to have a major impact. While it still needs to deliver, IMS is an example of such NGN developments. Mobile voice communications will consolidate in mature markets but continue their spectacular growth in developing countries, mainly Africa. However, mobile data, beyond SMS and particular countries such as Japan and Korea, will remain a niche market business and will grow into IP-based WiMAX services towards

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The Future of Voice Technology

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